Part of: US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone
US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone
This Polymarket prediction market covers the 2026 US Open ATP match between Tomas Etcheverry and Mariano Navone, scheduled for September 4, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with $8,160 in tracked smart money and recent signals involving both players.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,703.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor joins 26-wallet Etcheverry cluster
A proven sharp bettor bought Etcheverry at 56% alongside 26 same-direction wallets, followed by a 38-point price surge.
- This bettor wins 86% of 64 resolved positions and is up $192,573 lifetime.
- Twenty-six wallets bought Tomas Etcheverry together, totaling $169,095 through a linked two-share-funder cluster.
- The entry was 56¢ before Etcheverry surged to 100%, while the bettor had previously closed a similarly priced position.
$3,127 on Tomas Etcheverry | Wallet win rate: 87%
Sharp bettor in 26-wallet cluster
A proven bettor bought Etcheverry at 61 cents alongside 25 other wallets in a linked $169,095 one-sided cluster before the market moved to certainty.
- This bettor wins 85% of 289 resolved trades and is up $99,236 lifetime.
- Twenty-six wallets backed Etcheverry together for $169,095, with linked funding supporting the coordinated conviction.
- The $5,033 purchase at 61¢ preceded a 38-point price jump, and the bettor had already backed the same player before.
$5,033 on Tomas Etcheverry | Wallet win rate: 86%
93% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven serial trader with a 93% win rate and $2.18M profit is making a fresh $2,100 purchase of Mariano Navone at 48%.
- This bettor has won 93% of 2,559 resolved positions and earned $2.18M in profit.
- The trader is taking a fresh $2,100 position on Mariano Navone at 48% in a tightly priced match.
- Their activity spans 590 events and 697 markets, indicating a substantial, repeatable track record rather than a one-off bet.
$2,100 on Mariano Navone | Wallet win rate: 93%
96% win-rate bettor adds to Navone
A highly proven bettor with a 96% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Mariano Navone position at 48%.
- This bettor has won 400 of 418 resolved positions, with $359,550 in reported profit.
- They are increasing an existing Mariano Navone position at 48%, despite the market being near evenly priced.
- The 48¢ entry implies the bettor sees meaningful value in Navone advancing against a 52% Etcheverry market price.
$1,800 on Mariano Navone | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp bettor adds to Navone
A highly profitable serial bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge added $30,000 to an existing Mariano Navone position at 49%.
- This bettor has won 85% of 145 resolved positions and is up nearly $2.0 million.
- The $30,000 purchase adds to an existing $60,909 Navone position, signaling increased conviction.
- The 49¢ entry implies a favorable price if Navone advances, with the market currently near 48%.
$30,000 on Mariano Navone | Wallet win rate: 86%
84% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven bettor with an 84% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $3,951 purchase at near-even odds.
- This bettor has won 84% of 617 resolved positions and is up $1.07 million.
- The $3,951 buy on Tomas Etcheverry comes at 52¢, despite the bettor’s average winning entry being 53¢.
- The wallet has traded across 134 markets and 132 events, indicating an established repeatable approach rather than a one-off bet.
$3,951 on Tomas Etcheverry | Wallet win rate: 85%
Three-wallet Etcheverry buying surge
Three substantial bettors simultaneously bought Etcheverry at near-even odds, including a highly profitable large-scale trader, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal.
- Three wallets bought $28,692 of Etcheverry at 51¢ while the market was priced nearly 50–50.
- The largest buyer has won 66% of 51,501 resolved trades and earned about $47.3 million in profits.
- The synchronized buying followed a reported 2,666x spike versus historical activity, although one wallet was already holding Etcheverry shares.
$28,692 on Tomas Etcheverry
Top Holders
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 84440526, $100,000 (88% win rate)
- 0x8a86...4998 — Outcome 84440526, $60,909 (86% win rate)
- 0x698b...4426 — Outcome 84440526, $29,900 (55% win rate)
- 0x2a69...d2f7 — Outcome 84440526, $22,942 (70% win rate)
- 0x9f15...bdb3 — Outcome 84440526, $8,576 (79% win rate)
- 0x081e...f76e — Outcome 84440526, $6,375 (93% win rate)
- 0x3b80...9a99 — Outcome 84440526, $5,250 (85% win rate)
- 0xf12f...b30f — Outcome 84440526, $3,750 (95% win rate)
- 0xeea3...a6a2 — Outcome 84440526, $3,067 (53% win rate)
- 0xfdc8...c678 — Outcome 84440526, $2,443 (78% win rate)
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