Part of: April Inflation US - Annual
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?
This Polymarket prediction market tracks whether the Consumer Price Index will show a 3.6% year-over-year inflation increase for the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment. It resolves after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the April 2026 CPI report, expected on May 12, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,921 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,921.
Categories: cpi, Inflation, Macro Indicators, Economy, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable macro bettor
A profitable 78% winner is buying No on a thin inflation market with a stake larger than recent daily volume.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $3.4K lifetime.
- The $1.9K No buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 83¢ suggests a lower-risk copy, with the bettor expecting April 2026 inflation to come in below 3.6%.
$1,921 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $18,496
- 0xde04...fa37 — Yes, $3,252 (50% win rate)
- 0x5e10...70f4 — Yes, $3,179
- 0x8ea8...dc7f — Yes, $2,577
- 0x2f7b...8ed8 — No, $2,410 (78% win rate)
- 0xa5e3...4d7e — Yes, $2,339 (28% win rate)
- 0x404f...561d — Yes, $1,825
- 0x0ffc...8236 — No, $1,687 (52% win rate)
- 0x04dc...2387 — Yes, $1,666 (45% win rate)
- 0x4eef...3fcb — Yes, $1,498 (75% win rate)
