What is the Anthropic IPO prediction market?

It is a prediction market on whether Anthropic will have shares listed and trading on a public securities exchange by December 31, 2026.

When does the Anthropic IPO market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether Anthropic shares are open for public trading by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The listed resolution date is July 1, 2027.

What happens if Anthropic is acquired before its IPO?

If Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already publicly traded, the market immediately resolves to No.

Part of: Anthropic IPO by __?

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Q: What determines the outcome of the Anthropic IPO market?

Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange are the primary resolution sources.

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic shares will be listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if an IPO or qualifying public listing occurs by the deadline, and No otherwise; an acquisition by an already-public company also results in No. Check the live market page for current Yes/No odds and smart money activity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,072.

Categories: IPOs, Dario, Finance, IPO, Anthropic IPO, Anthropic, anthropic

Notable Trades

85% winner fading IPO

A highly experienced profitable wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is fading Anthropic IPO odds after a sharp weekly drop.

This bettor has won 85% of 1,178 resolved trades and is up about $5.7K lifetime.
They sold Yes at 73¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 27¢.
The market has already moved 14 points toward No this week, and this trade follows that momentum.

$2,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

85% winner fading IPO

A highly experienced profitable wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is fading Anthropic IPO odds after a sharp weekly drop.

This bettor has won 85% of 1,178 resolved trades and is up about $5.7K lifetime.
They sold Yes at 73¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 27¢.
The market has already moved 14 points toward No this week, and this trade follows that momentum.

$1,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

92% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 92% win rate made a sizable fresh Yes bet at 68¢ in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 92% of 1,523 resolved trades and is up $3.03 million.
The $2,166 purchase was larger than the market’s reported 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin market.
They bought Yes at 68¢, implying substantially higher confidence than the market’s current odds alone.

$1,595 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 92% win rate made a sizable fresh Yes bet at 68¢ in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 92% of 1,523 resolved trades and is up $3.03 million.
The $2,166 purchase was larger than the market’s reported 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin market.
They bought Yes at 68¢, implying substantially higher confidence than the market’s current odds alone.

$5,464 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 92% win rate made a sizable fresh Yes bet at 68¢ in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 92% of 1,523 resolved trades and is up $3.03 million.
The $2,166 purchase was larger than the market’s reported 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin market.
They bought Yes at 68¢, implying substantially higher confidence than the market’s current odds alone.

$1,020 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp serial trader turns bullish

A highly profitable serial trader with a 78% win rate is exiting No at 27¢, implying a bullish Yes position despite the trade potentially being position management.

This bettor wins 78% of 1,027 resolved trades and is up $535,050 lifetime.
Selling No at 27¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 73¢, reinforcing the market’s recent bullish move.
The position is not entirely fresh conviction: the wallet previously held and closed a sizable No position in this market.

$1,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

92% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 92% win rate made a sizable fresh Yes bet at 68¢ in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 92% of 1,523 resolved trades and is up $3.03 million.
The $2,166 purchase was larger than the market’s reported 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin market.
They bought Yes at 68¢, implying substantially higher confidence than the market’s current odds alone.

$2,166 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Repeat new wallet scaling into No

A repeat new wallet is scaling into a No position with a $1,905 trade that exceeded the market's entire 24-hour volume, though it lacks a proven track record.

This new wallet has made five flagged large bets totaling $14,002 and is adding to an existing No position.
The $1,905 purchase was larger than the market's full $1,662 in 24-hour volume, signaling notable conviction in a relatively quiet market.
No was bought at 31¢ while the market implies only about a 32% chance of No, so the trade is a concentrated contrarian view rather than a routine favorite bet.

$1,905 on No

Perfect-record funded cluster

Surface: a perfect-record profitable wallet from a recurring funded cluster bought Yes on a relatively quiet IPO market.

This bettor has won 16 of 16 resolved trades and is up $11.7K lifetime.
Four wallets sharing the same funder have been active across runs, suggesting coordinated conviction.
The $2.6K buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume of $1.7K.

$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Sharp serial trader adding No

Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 84% resolved win rate is adding to an existing No position on Anthropic IPO at 35¢.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $37K lifetime.
They are adding to an existing No position, now with about $10.6K invested on this market.
Entry at 35¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market currently around 37¢.

$1,185 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%