What is the Anthropic IPO prediction market asking?

The market asks whether Anthropic shares will be publicly listed and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.

When does the Anthropic IPO market resolve?

The market's outcome deadline is December 31, 2026. The listed market resolution date is July 1, 2027, subject to the exchange's stated resolution process.

What happens if Anthropic is acquired before its IPO?

If Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already publicly traded, the market immediately resolves to No.

What determines the outcome of the Anthropic IPO market?

Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange are the primary sources used to determine whether its shares began trading by the deadline.

Where can I track Anthropic IPO odds and smart money?

PolySpotter tracks the Yes and No prediction-market odds, along with smart money signals such as activity from serial traders and funded trading clusters.

Part of: Anthropic IPO by __?

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic shares will be listed on a public securities exchange and begin trading by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if the IPO occurs by the deadline and No otherwise, including if Anthropic is acquired by an already-public company; official filings and exchange announcements determine the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

25 smart money signals detected, totaling $91,258.

Categories: Finance, IPO, Anthropic IPO, Anthropic, IPOs, Dario, anthropic

Notable Trades

Serial trader with $882K lifetime profit

A high-volume trader with substantial lifetime profits made a $9.2K contrarian sell on Yes, equivalent to buying No at 13¢, with linked-wallet activity providing additional context.

This trader has won 62% of 1,756 resolved bets and is up about $882K overall.
The $9.2K sale of Yes at 87¢ is equivalent to betting No at 13¢; two wallets linked by a shared funder were flagged.
The trader has positioned across 179 events, though the market’s recent odds movement has favored Yes.

$1,576 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Serial trader with $882K lifetime profit

A high-volume trader with substantial lifetime profits made a $9.2K contrarian sell on Yes, equivalent to buying No at 13¢, with linked-wallet activity providing additional context.

This trader has won 62% of 1,756 resolved bets and is up about $882K overall.
The $9.2K sale of Yes at 87¢ is equivalent to betting No at 13¢; two wallets linked by a shared funder were flagged.
The trader has positioned across 179 events, though the market’s recent odds movement has favored Yes.

$9,219 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable whale adding to linked position

A profitable, high-volume trader is adding a $20.8K Yes position alongside a linked wallet, though the historical win rate does not establish a strong edge.

The trader is adding $20.8K to an existing Yes position, bringing the reported investment on this market to about $48.9K.
Two wallets linked by a shared funder have $35.7K in activity, a notable coordination signal.
The wallet is up about $889K over 1,754 resolved bets, but its 62% win rate is not compelling evidence of an edge on its own.

$20,807 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable trader in seven-wallet cluster

A highly profitable serial trader is selling Yes within a seven-wallet shared-funder cluster, making the equivalent No position worth surfacing despite the modest trade size.

This trader is up $208,466 across 285 resolved bets and has traded across 77 events.
Seven wallets share a funder, and this trade sells Yes at 67¢, equivalent to buying No at 33¢.
The market has fallen 18% over the past week, aligning with the No direction.

$1,329 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Recurring three-wallet bearish cluster

A recurring three-wallet funding cluster is associated with a sizeable sell of Yes, equivalent to buying No, on a relatively quiet market.

Three wallets sharing a funder are linked to $2,235 in activity, with the cluster appearing in prior scans.
The $2,235 sell of Yes at 81¢ translates to a No position at 19¢; 24-hour volume was only $5,513.
The bettor has 171 resolved trades, a 58% win rate, and is up $38,270 overall.

$2,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly active, profitable trader added to an existing Yes position during a 223x volume spike, though their win rate does not clearly exceed the odds they typically pay.

This trader has won 554 of 804 resolved bets and is up about $1.18M overall.
They added $4,394 to an existing $20,706 Yes position as market volume surged to 223 times its historical average.

$4,394 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable serial trader makes $15.6K Yes bet

A highly profitable, experienced cross-market trader placed a $15.6K Yes position during a 186x volume spike, with odds subsequently rising from 81–83% to 88%.

This trader is up $1.18M across more than 800 resolved bets and committed $15.6K to Yes.
The trades coincided with a 186x spike over historical volume, and odds have risen to 88%.
They entered at 81–83%, below the current 88% market price.

$15,606 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Three-wallet funded cluster backs Yes

A three-wallet shared-funder cluster has put $2,241 into this market across runs, including a fresh $1,088 Yes buy; the trader also has positive lifetime P&L.

Three wallets share a funder and have wagered $2,241 on this market across multiple runs.
The featured wallet has won 58% of 171 resolved bets and is up $38,389 lifetime.
The wallet bought Yes at 80¢, close to the current 80% market odds.

$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Seven-wallet funded cluster

A $3,800 Yes bet in a quiet market is supported by a repeatedly detected seven-wallet shared-funder cluster, though the trader's 65% win rate is not strong relative to their average winning entry price.

Seven wallets share a funder, and the cluster has reappeared across prior scans.
The $3,800 Yes bet is larger than the market’s $3,169 in 24-hour volume.
The bettor is up $124,503 lifetime across 248 resolved bets, though their 65% win rate is not clearly exceptional at their usual entry prices.

$3,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

85% winner fading IPO

A highly experienced profitable wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is fading Anthropic IPO odds after a sharp weekly drop.

This bettor has won 85% of 1,178 resolved trades and is up about $5.7K lifetime.
They sold Yes at 73¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 27¢.
The market has already moved 14 points toward No this week, and this trade follows that momentum.

$1,484 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%