Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
This Polymarket asks whether April 2026 will finish as the second hottest April on record based on NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. The market resolves on May 10, 2026, and ties for first, second, or third still count for the bracket tied with. PolySpotter is currently tracking limited smart money activity in this market, including a recent thin NO buy alert.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.
Categories: Science, Weather, Global Temp
Notable Trades
95% winner buys thin NO
A proven high-win-rate bettor made a market-moving $2,000 buy into an extremely thin climate market, suggesting conviction despite poor liquidity and a wide spread.
- This bettor wins 95% of their trades over 999 resolved bets and is up $27.6k lifetime
- Their $2,000 order was 27x the market's 24-hour volume and landed in a very thin book
- They bought No at 84¢, showing high conviction that April 2026 will not finish 2nd hottest on record
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0xa49b...7054 — No, $3,662 (95% win rate)
- 0xfde5...676c — Yes, $1,952
- 0x9d4a...6cb1 — Yes, $1,331
- 0xc351...08f7 — No, $871
- 0x6317...e864 — No, $592
- 0x97d1...b2ef — Yes, $592 (60% win rate)
- 0x5372...5f61 — No, $531
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $496
- 0x71fb...9b65 — Yes, $493
- 0xe495...c165 — Yes, $400
