Part of: 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Science, Weather, Global Temp

Notable Trades

95% winner buys thin NO

A proven high-win-rate bettor made a market-moving $2,000 buy into an extremely thin climate market, suggesting conviction despite poor liquidity and a wide spread.

  • This bettor wins 95% of their trades over 999 resolved bets and is up $27.6k lifetime
  • Their $2,000 order was 27x the market's 24-hour volume and landed in a very thin book
  • They bought No at 84¢, showing high conviction that April 2026 will not finish 2nd hottest on record

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfde5...676c Outcome 68526397, $1,952
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 86376950, $1,886
  3. 0xc09e...6946 Outcome 68526397, $736
  4. 0x6317...e864 Outcome 86376950, $592
  5. 0x5372...5f61 Outcome 86376950, $531
  6. 0x386f...db83 Outcome 68526397, $500
  7. 0x71fb...9b65 Outcome 68526397, $493
  8. 0xccf8...ded2 Outcome 68526397, $259
  9. 0xe372...eb38 Outcome 68526397, $255
  10. 0x3684...9669 Outcome 68526397, $167

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Resolved2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?$2,000 tracked1 signalScienceWeatherGlobal Temp

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Notable Trades

Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

46d ago

$2,000 on No at 84¢

Related Theses