Part of: Argentina vs. Cabo Verde
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $63,158.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
New profitable whale cluster
Four wallets bought the draw together at 11¢, led by a very new repeat large bettor with strong early profits and supported by cross-market betting history.
- A 2-day-old repeat large bettor is already up $128K and put $5K on this side.
- Four wallets bought the same 11¢ draw outcome within 20 minutes, totaling $14.6K.
- One participant is a serial cross-market trader across 36 events with a 73% hit rate.
$14,644 on Yes
New profitable wallet backing No
A 3-day-old wallet with early profits placed a $21.5k high-conviction bet on No, though the market is very liquid and the track record is still short.
- This 3-day-old wallet is already up $4,494 across early resolved bets.
- It put $21,500 on No at 90¢, a large concentrated position for a brand-new account.
- The bet backs the heavy favorite in a liquid market, so the signal is mainly the wallet’s size and early profitability.
$21,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp 81% sports bettor
Sharp sports bettor with an 81% win rate and $217k lifetime profit is buying the draw at 11¢ despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $217k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 76 events with a strong track record.
- Entry at 11¢ implies they see the draw as a high-upside mispricing.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 43%
Profitable whale backs favorite
A highly profitable, high-volume sports wallet put $18.2k on No during a sharp pre-event volume spike, though the edge is less compelling because the market is liquid and the bet is on a heavy favorite.
- This bettor is up about $794k lifetime across more than 17,000 resolved bets.
- They bought $18.2k of No at 89¢ as pre-game volume spiked about 62x above normal.
- The market is liquid, so this is more of a sharp-wallet follow than a thin-market signal.
$18,155 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
New whale repeat bettor
A 13-hour-old wallet with eight recent large flagged bets is putting another $7.1k on the draw at 12¢, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning despite no resolved track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet has already made 8 large flagged bets totaling $45.9k.
- This trade adds $7.1k on the draw at 12¢, a concentrated long-shot position.
- The match is two days away, so this looks like early conviction rather than last-minute noise.
$7,059 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 18757536, $5,094,012
- 0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 18757536, $133,927 (57% win rate)
- 0x4f29...7a7e — Outcome 18757536, $91,953 (56% win rate)
- 0x2005...75ea — Outcome 18757536, $37,323 (56% win rate)
- 0xec8f...8df8 — Outcome 18757536, $22,206 (56% win rate)
- 0xfaa2...e80a — Outcome 18757536, $20,000 (78% win rate)
- 0x99c4...18e7 — Outcome 18757536, $11,657 (51% win rate)
- 0x3f3a...e8fd — Outcome 18757536, $9,580 (66% win rate)
- 0x325f...4511 — Outcome 18757536, $9,540 (65% win rate)
- 0x95f5...779f — Outcome 18757536, $9,397
Related Theses
Liverpool wins on May 17
Covers 1 related market
Colombia keeps Portugal close
Covers 5 related markets
Brazil wins three nil
Covers 9 related markets
DR Congo wins June 27
Covers 1 related market
El Clásico ends level
Covers 1 related market
DR Congo won't lose
Covers 3 related markets
Argentina will advance past Spain
Covers 1 related market
Uzbekistan covers low-scoring match
Covers 5 related markets
Panama Croatia tied at halftime
Covers 3 related markets
Manchester United will win
Covers 1 related market
