Part of: World Cup Winner
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $376,982.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Sharp winner buying long-shot Yes
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the stake is modest in a very liquid long-dated market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime.
- They bought Argentina at 8¢, a long-shot price with about 12.5x payout if it hits.
- The market is very liquid, so the signal comes from the bettor’s track record rather than price impact.
$5,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
92% win-rate World Cup bettor
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought $15k of Argentina Yes and has a long record of successful cross-market World Cup-style positioning.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $541k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 276 events, with nearly $3M deployed and the same 92% hit rate.
- A $15k entry at 15¢ implies they see Argentina as materially underpriced.
$4,381 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
95% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought $14k of Argentina Yes at 20¢.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $450k lifetime.
- They have traded 388 markets across 285 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- A $14k buy at 20¢ implies they see Argentina as underpriced despite a very liquid market.
$29,247 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
92% win-rate World Cup bettor
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought $15k of Argentina Yes and has a long record of successful cross-market World Cup-style positioning.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $541k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 276 events, with nearly $3M deployed and the same 92% hit rate.
- A $15k entry at 15¢ implies they see Argentina as materially underpriced.
$8,320 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Perfect-record soccer bettor
A proven sharp wallet with a 120-0 resolved record bought Argentina Yes at 21¢, making this worth surfacing despite the modest bet size in a very liquid market.
- This bettor has won 120 of 120 resolved positions and is up $7.8k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 21¢, implying a long-shot World Cup view with roughly 4.8x upside.
- Argentina’s odds are already moving, up 8.9 percentage points over the past week.
$4,590 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
79% winner cross-market thesis
High composite score from a 79% historical winner making a cross-market World Cup thesis, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved trades, beating average entry odds of 32%.
- They have put $14.6K across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader tournament thesis.
- Argentina Yes at 14¢ is moving with recent momentum, up 5.8 points over the past week.
$8,449 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor backs longshot
Sharp profitable wallet with 87% historical win rate is buying Argentina World Cup Yes despite the alert having only a weak standalone score.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $15.4K lifetime.
- Their past wins came at 71¢ average odds, suggesting a real edge rather than only buying heavy favorites.
- Entry at 8¢ is a low-cost longshot position on a highly liquid World Cup market.
$8,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
New whale World Cup portfolio
A 7-day-old wallet has now made repeated large World Cup bets, including a $5.7k Argentina Yes buy as part of $27k cross-market positioning.
- A 7-day-old wallet is already betting big, with about $35k flagged across repeated large trades.
- This $5.7k buy is part of $27k in World Cup positioning across 3 related markets.
- Entry at 12¢ is a high-upside futures bet if the bettor is right on Argentina.
$6,275 on Yes
87% winner backs long shot
A highly profitable bettor with an 87% win rate and extensive cross-market history bought Argentina World Cup Yes at 8¢ despite the market being very liquid.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $660K lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 185 events with over $623K placed.
- Entry at 8¢ gives a low-cost long-shot position on Argentina winning the 2026 World Cup.
$9,225 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
82% winner fading Argentina
Sharp wallet override: an 82% lifetime winner with positive P&L is fading Argentina by selling Yes in a liquid World Cup market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 233 bets and is up $2.3K lifetime.
- They sold Argentina Yes at 20¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 80¢.
- The wallet has beaten its average implied odds by 24 percentage points, suggesting real historical edge.
$5,856 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $52,325,995
- 0xa7b7...962e — Yes, $12,354,112
- 0x8b5a...00f2 — Yes, $1,509,116 (52% win rate)
- 0x9ba7...f56b — Yes, $1,260,230 (50% win rate)
- 0x7c1e...bab3 — Yes, $1,019,293 (61% win rate)
- 0x7d83...be92 — Yes, $825,657
- 0xe549...2d54 — Yes, $784,524 (99% win rate)
- 0xd49f...4507 — Yes, $568,720 (74% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $566,151 (75% win rate)
- 0x18d8...7e2e — Yes, $542,533 (100% win rate)
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