What does this Bitcoin $35,000 prediction market cover?

This market is about whether Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT price will record a 1-minute candle low of $35,000 or below by December 31, 2026.

How does the market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle between Nov. 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and Dec. 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET has a final Low price equal to or below $35,000.

What happens if Bitcoin never reaches $35,000 by the deadline?

If no qualifying Binance 1-minute candle shows BTC at or below $35,000 during the market window, the market resolves to No after the end date.

What is the resolution source for this BTC market?

The official resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT candle data, specifically the Low price on the 1-minute chart.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter currently tracks $8,514 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal on this market, including alerts from profitable crypto and BTC-focused traders.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Bitcoin will dip to $35,000 or lower by December 31, 2026, based on the low price of any 1-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance. It resolves Yes immediately if that level is touched between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No after the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $8,514 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this BTC downside market.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $162,293.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

94% winner buying BTC dip

A profitable 94% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes on a BTC $35k dip, with an $8.5k trade that exceeded the market's recent activity signal.

This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved markets and is up about $9.9k lifetime.
The $8.5k trade was larger than the detected 24h market activity, showing real conviction.
Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, a low-cost bet on BTC touching $35k before 2027.

$8,514 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

92% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate is making a sizable No bet on a relatively quiet BTC downside market.

This bettor has won 22 of 24 resolved bets and is up $4.2K lifetime.
They put $3.9K on No, far larger than recent activity in this market.
Entry at 82¢ means they are backing the view that BTC avoids a $35K dip before 2027.

$3,923 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable crypto cross-market bettor

Surfacing due to a profitable 455-bet wallet with a 75% win rate making a consistent cross-market Bitcoin downside fade across 3 related markets.

This bettor has won 75% of 455 resolved trades and is up $3.8k lifetime.
They have put $6.8k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 81¢ means they are fading a Bitcoin drop to $35k before the end of 2026.

$1,315 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

New crypto whale buying Yes

A 3-day-old wallet is repeatedly making large, concentrated crypto bets, putting $14.4k toward Yes on a BTC $35k dip after $32k total flagged activity.

A 3-day-old wallet has now made $32k in flagged large bets, suggesting strong conviction rather than a one-off trade.
This $14.4k position is betting that Bitcoin will hit $35k by the end of 2026.
The trader’s average entry is around 33¢, while the market is now near 24¢, offering a cheaper copy entry.

$14,405 on Yes

New repeat BTC whale

A 20-day-old wallet is making its third sizable flagged bet, buying $4k of Yes on a relatively quiet BTC dip market, though its track record is still very limited.

This new wallet has now made about $15.7k in flagged large bets within its first 21 days.
The $4k buy was nearly 80% of recent market volume, showing concentrated conviction in a quiet period.
Entry at 27¢ implies they see Bitcoin dipping to $35k as underpriced versus the current 24¢ market.

$4,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

102-0 cross-market sharp

A 102-0 profitable wallet is moving across six related Bitcoin dip markets and this trade effectively backs Yes at about 21¢.

This bettor is 102-0 on resolved trades and up about $48.9K lifetime.
They have placed $61.7K across six related Bitcoin dip markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling No here is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, implying they see more downside risk than the market’s 20% odds.

$2,355 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New downside repeat bettor

Young repeat wallet is building a sizable BTC downside thesis across related markets, though it has no resolved track record yet.

This 8-day-old wallet has now triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling $18.6k.
The bettor is also positioned across 2 related Bitcoin dip markets, suggesting a broader downside thesis.
Entry at 20¢ implies a 5x payout if Bitcoin touches $35k by end-2026.

$1,534 on Yes

New repeat BTC dip buyer

A very new wallet with repeated large-bet flags is building a $5.2k Yes position on a lower-liquidity BTC downside market, with average entry already below current odds.

This wallet is under 9 days old and has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts totaling $12.9k.
They put $5.2k on Bitcoin hitting $35k, about 36% of this market’s last-day volume.
Their average entry is around 15¢, and the market is now trading closer to 18–19¢.

$5,161 on Yes

86% crypto bettor

Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a long-dated BTC crash market despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $9.3K lifetime.
They bought $3.1K of No at 83¢, betting BTC will not touch $35K before 2027.
They have $5.2K positioned across related BTC dip markets, suggesting a broader directional view.

$3,064 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

88-0 crypto bettor

A highly reliable crypto bettor with an 88-0 resolved record is buying No as part of a broader $91.6k cross-market Bitcoin downside thesis.

This bettor has won 88 of 88 resolved trades and is up $51.1k lifetime.
They have $91.6k spread across 5 related Bitcoin markets, all aligned with the same thesis.
Buying No at 82¢ means they are backing Bitcoin not to touch $35k before the end of 2026.

$2,458 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%