Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $63,586.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

88% win-rate BTC bettor

A wallet with an 88% win rate is making a sizable cross-market Bitcoin thesis bet, buying No at 81¢ across four related markets despite recent odds drifting against them.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k overall
  • They placed a $8.4k bet as part of a $43.2k position across 4 related Bitcoin dip markets
  • They bought No at 81¢ even with the market easing to 78¢, suggesting a strong view that $40k will not hit

$8,389 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

88% win-rate BTC bettor

A wallet with an 88% win rate is making a sizeable cross-market Bitcoin dip bet, and one fill at 48¢ on No was especially strong value versus the current 78¢ price.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k lifetime.
  • They placed about $36.9k across 4 related Bitcoin markets, showing a clear event-level view.
  • One buy got filled at 48¢ on No, while No now trades at 78¢, showing they caught a major mispricing.

$36,905 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

88% win-rate BTC thesis bettor

An 88% win-rate wallet is making a fresh $18.3k cross-market Bitcoin downside-thesis bet by buying No across related dip markets, a strong copy-trade signal despite this market being fairly liquid.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k lifetime.
  • They put $18.3k into No here and $22.1k across 3 related Bitcoin dip markets.
  • They bought around 79-84¢, implying they see the 22% Yes odds as too high.

$18,292 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcc50...4c82 No, $40,996 (39% win rate)
  2. 0xfa03...8916 Yes, $36,454 (40% win rate)
  3. 0x861f...177d Yes, $35,881 (44% win rate)
  4. 0x1465...7072 No, $28,171 (88% win rate)
  5. 0x825a...8835 Yes, $27,438
  6. 0x9231...2212 No, $25,759 (95% win rate)
  7. 0xd0f1...6712 No, $19,668
  8. 0x60bf...15aa Yes, $14,994
  9. 0x07fb...4696 No, $14,819
  10. 0x56ad...f13e No, $13,000 (53% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

247d$63,586 tracked3 signalsBitcoinYearlyHit PriceCrypto PricesCrypto
Yes
22¢
No
79¢

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Price History — “No
80¢
76¢
72¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

2h ago

$8,389 on No at 81¢

81¢79¢2¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

2h ago

$36,905 on No at 48¢

48¢79¢31¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

2h ago

$18,292 on No at 82¢

82¢79¢3¢

Related Theses