Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether Bitcoin will trade at or below $50,000 on any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle low between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026. It resolves Yes immediately if the $50,000 level is touched; otherwise it resolves No after the deadline on Jan. 1, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $1,644 in smart money activity and 1 signal tied to this market, including sharp-wallet BTC-related alerts.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
43 smart money signals detected, totaling $205,334.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Sharp crypto wallet with a 105-0 resolved record is expressing a cross-market Yes thesis on a BTC $50k dip by selling No.
- This bettor has won 105 of 105 resolved trades and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have put about $74.9k across 6 related BTC dip markets, showing a broader directional thesis.
- Selling No at 40¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 60¢, with the market already moving toward Yes this week.
$1,644 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Sharp crypto wallet with a 105-0 resolved record is expressing a cross-market Yes thesis on a BTC $50k dip by selling No.
- This bettor has won 105 of 105 resolved trades and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have put about $74.9k across 6 related BTC dip markets, showing a broader directional thesis.
- Selling No at 40¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 60¢, with the market already moving toward Yes this week.
$1,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Sharp crypto wallet with a 105-0 resolved record is expressing a cross-market Yes thesis on a BTC $50k dip by selling No.
- This bettor has won 105 of 105 resolved trades and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have put about $74.9k across 6 related BTC dip markets, showing a broader directional thesis.
- Selling No at 40¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 60¢, with the market already moving toward Yes this week.
$2,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Sharp crypto wallet with a 105-0 resolved record is expressing a cross-market Yes thesis on a BTC $50k dip by selling No.
- This bettor has won 105 of 105 resolved trades and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have put about $74.9k across 6 related BTC dip markets, showing a broader directional thesis.
- Selling No at 40¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 60¢, with the market already moving toward Yes this week.
$1,519 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Sharp crypto wallet with a 105-0 resolved record is expressing a cross-market Yes thesis on a BTC $50k dip by selling No.
- This bettor has won 105 of 105 resolved trades and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have put about $74.9k across 6 related BTC dip markets, showing a broader directional thesis.
- Selling No at 40¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 60¢, with the market already moving toward Yes this week.
$1,759 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable crypto thesis bettor
Profitable cross-market crypto bettor is expressing a broad Bitcoin-downside thesis across 7 related markets with $50.7k total exposure.
- This bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $65.5k lifetime.
- They have built a $50.7k position across 7 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader downside thesis.
- Selling No at 44¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 56¢, betting Bitcoin touches $50k by the end of 2026.
$2,505 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
92% winner buys NO
Sharp serial cross-market wallet with a 92% resolved win rate and $267k profit bought No on the Bitcoin $50k dip market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $267k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 98 markets and $293k tracked volume.
- Buying No at 49¢ means they are fading a BTC drop to $50k before the end of 2026.
$1,307 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Six-market BTC downside thesis
One wallet is expressing a sizable cross-market BTC downside thesis across six related markets, though its high win rate is mostly on heavy favorites and lifetime P&L is negative.
- This wallet has put $62.8K across 6 related Bitcoin dip markets, pointing to a broad bearish thesis.
- This trade sells No at 39¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 61¢ on a BTC dip to $50K by end-2026.
- The wallet has won 30 of 31 resolved bets, but its lifetime P&L is negative, so the main signal is position size and cross-market conviction.
$1,519 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
5-market BTC thesis
Wallet is building a sizable 5-market Bitcoin thesis despite mixed P&L history, making the cross-market positioning worth monitoring.
- This wallet has positioned across 5 related Bitcoin markets with about $55.7k in total exposure.
- It has won 30 of 31 resolved bets, though lifetime P&L is negative because many wins were at very high prices.
- This trade buys No at 37¢, fading a market that has moved strongly toward Yes over the past week.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Profitable sharp exiting Yes
Sharp profitable wallet is exiting a prior Yes position, which converts to a No lean, though the signal is weaker because it may be profit-taking rather than a fresh short.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $21.9K lifetime.
- They sold Yes after entering around 43¢, which effectively leans toward No at 54¢.
- Signal is weaker because this may be closing a profitable Yes position, not opening a brand-new No bet.
$4,309 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x1465...7072 — No, $297,080 (92% win rate)
- 0x861f...177d — Yes, $76,821 (44% win rate)
- 0x0a76...f8f9 — No, $44,940
- 0x6131...fd16 — Yes, $40,942 (61% win rate)
- 0x67ae...0f0a — No, $35,890 (100% win rate)
- 0x8b14...d0b1 — Yes, $34,318 (71% win rate)
- 0x66ad...cc4e — No, $30,000 (91% win rate)
- 0x60bf...15aa — Yes, $26,461
- 0xd0f1...6712 — No, $20,321 (70% win rate)
- 0x41b8...1c0d — Yes, $19,324 (100% win rate)
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