What has to happen for this Bitcoin prediction market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET shows a final low price of $50,000 or lower.

Does Bitcoin need to close below $50,000 for this market to hit?

No. Bitcoin only needs to touch $50,000 or lower on the low of a single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle. A daily or hourly close below that level is not required.

What price source decides the outcome?

The outcome is based on Binance BTC/USDT data, specifically the final low prices on the 1-minute chart. Other exchanges or BTC price indexes do not determine resolution unless they match Binance's reported data.

When does this Polymarket Bitcoin $50K market resolve?

The market's observation window ends on December 31, 2026, and resolution is scheduled for January 1, 2027. If Bitcoin never prints a Binance 1-minute low at or below $50,000 during that period, the market resolves No.

Why are traders watching this Bitcoin price level?

The $50,000 level is a major psychological and technical threshold for Bitcoin. Prediction market traders use markets like this to estimate the odds of a sharp BTC drawdown before the end of 2026.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 or lower at any point before the end of December 31, 2026. It resolves "Yes" if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle records a low at or below $50,000 during the market window; otherwise it resolves "No." Resolution is scheduled for January 1, 2027, after the observation period ends.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,000.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market BTC trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term track record bought No at 49¢ across this Bitcoin threshold event, making this a credible thesis-driven position worth following despite the moderate size.

This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up about $311k across more than $3.1M invested
They have traded 455 markets across 341 events, including 7 related markets in this same Bitcoin event for $44.6k total
Bought No at 49¢ while this market has been sliding over the past week, suggesting a broader thesis that BTC stays above $50k

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%