Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?

This market resolves Yes if Binance BTC/USDT records any 1-minute candle with a final High price of $120,000 or higher between Nov. 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and Dec. 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET. If that does not happen, it resolves No.

What price source determines whether BTC hits $120,000?

The market uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data as the resolution source, specifically the final High price shown on Binance for the relevant candle.

When does the Bitcoin $120K prediction market resolve?

The listed resolution date is Jan. 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC, after the Dec. 31, 2026 ET deadline. It can resolve earlier to Yes immediately if BTC reaches or exceeds $120,000 on the specified Binance 1-minute High price.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking for this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $10,481 in smart money exposure and 2 smart money signals for this Bitcoin $120K market, with recent alerts referencing high-performing BTC thesis traders, contrarians, bears, and linked bull or No clusters.

Does Bitcoin need to close above $120,000 for this market to resolve Yes?

No. BTC does not need to close above $120,000. The market only requires a Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle to have a final High price equal to or greater than $120,000 during the specified time window.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Bitcoin will reach a $120,000 high on Binance BTC/USDT before the end of December 31, 2026 ET. It resolves Yes if any 1-minute Binance candle between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026 has a final High price of $120,000 or more; otherwise it resolves No on Jan. 1, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $10,481 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including notable BTC bull, bear, and contrarian alerts.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $52,315.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Perfect-record BTC bear

Surface: a wallet with a perfect 102-0 resolved record and positive lifetime P&L is adding a bearish BTC-range position across a broader six-market thesis.

This bettor has won 102 of 102 resolved bets and is up about $49K lifetime.
They have $61.8K positioned across 6 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing Bitcoin not reaching $120K by the end of 2026.

$1,777 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

12-0 bettor joins NO cluster

Three profitable wallets bought No together, including a 12-0 bettor with positive lifetime P&L, making this coordinated BTC downside bet worth surfacing.

One wallet is 12-for-12 on resolved bets and is up $4.4k lifetime.
Three profitable wallets bought the same side within 16 minutes, totaling $8.7k.
They paid 89¢ for No, signaling confidence that BTC stays below $120k through 2026.

$8,704 on No

14-0 sharp buys NO

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the wallet is 14-0 on resolved trades with positive P&L and placed a meaningful $6.7k No bet.

This bettor has won 14 of 14 resolved trades and is up $5.7k lifetime.
They put $6.7k on No, nearly 89% of this market’s recent 24h volume.
Entry at 90¢ is a high-confidence bet that Bitcoin will not hit $120k by the end of 2026.

$6,659 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Linked BTC bull cluster

High-score alert driven by a profitable high-volume wallet selling No across related BTC price markets, with linked-wallet clustering and large size versus quiet 24h volume.

This bettor has a long record: 1,026 resolved trades, 70% winners, and $42K in lifetime profit.
Three wallets funded by the same source are putting $15.4K behind the same bullish BTC thesis.
The trade is large for a quiet market, with individual fills equal to more than 50% of recent 24h volume.

$15,387 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

78% win-rate BTC thesis trader

A proven 78% win-rate trader with over 130 resolved bets is positioning across four related BTC price markets, and this trade effectively buys Yes around 23¢ in a moderately quiet market.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades across 134 markets and has put about $1.0M to work overall.
They built a 4-market position on the same Bitcoin price event, with $67.6k tracked across related markets.
This sale of No at 77¢ is effectively a buy on Yes at 23¢, close to the current 20¢ market price.

$6,929 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Perfect-record BTC contrarian

A perfect-record wallet made three sizable buys on the No side across related BTC price markets, dominating thin 24h volume and paying 84-90¢ for a long-dated outcome they likely view as overpriced on Yes.

This bettor is 9 for 9 on resolved markets and is up money overall.
They put $12.9k into the same BTC thesis across 2 related markets, including bets bigger than the market's full 24h volume.
They bought No at 84-90¢ while No now trades at 80¢, showing willingness to size up on a long-dated crypto view.

$12,859 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%