What is the Bitcoin $140,000 by 2026 prediction market?

This market lets traders predict whether Bitcoin will trade at or above $140,000 before the end of December 31, 2026. The outcome is based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices.

How does this Polymarket resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to “Yes” if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle between November 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET shows a final high price of $140,000 or higher.

When will the Bitcoin $140K market resolve?

If Bitcoin hits the target before the deadline, the market can resolve immediately to “Yes.” If it never reaches $140,000 during the specified period, it resolves to “No” after December 31, 2026, with the listed resolution time on January 1, 2027 UTC.

What price source is used for this BTC prediction market?

The resolution source is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT trading pair using 1-minute candle high prices. Other exchanges or spot indexes are not used for settlement.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $1,088 in smart money tied to this market across 1 signal. Recent alerts include activity from high-performing BTC traders with both upside and bearish Bitcoin positioning.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Bitcoin will reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026, based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices. It resolves “Yes” if any qualifying Binance 1m candle between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026 has a high of $140,000 or more; otherwise it resolves “No” after the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $1,088 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this BTC upside market.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,142.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

85% winner bearish BTC

Sharp 85% winner with 74 resolved bets is expressing a cross-market bearish BTC thesis, buying No on $140k by end-2026.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 74 bets and is profitable lifetime.
They have bet across 3 related BTC markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Entry at 89¢ is close to the current market price, backing No on Bitcoin reaching $140k by end-2026.

$1,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp BTC thesis trader

A proven 77% win-rate trader is building a directional Bitcoin bull thesis across multiple related markets by effectively buying Yes around 10-14¢ on this $140k target.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades across 133 bets and has traded nearly $962k total
They are expressing the same Bitcoin view across 4 related markets, with $53.7k deployed in this event
These sells of No equal buying Yes around 11-14¢, a cheap convex entry for a long-dated crypto target

$9,674 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

77% winner buys BTC upside

A proven 77% winner is making a sizable cross-market Bitcoin target bet, effectively buying Yes at 11¢ in a market where this single trade was about 8.5x the prior 24h volume.

This bettor wins 77% of their resolved trades across 133 bets and is active across 4 related Bitcoin markets.
They effectively bought Yes at 11¢ by selling No at 89¢, putting $6.4k into a trade that was about 849% of this market's prior 24h volume.
The market is still relatively quiet at under $8k 24h volume, so a sharp bettor taking this size suggests real conviction in long-dated BTC upside.

$6,379 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%