What does this Bitcoin $78,000 prediction market measure?

This market measures whether Binance's BTC/USDT price reaches at least $78,000 at any time between 12:00 AM ET on April 20 and 11:59 PM ET on April 26. It uses the final high of any 1-minute candle during that period.

How does this Polymarket resolve to Yes?

It resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle within the stated date range has a final High price of $78,000 or higher. If that never happens during the full week, the outcome is No.

Which price source decides the result?

The official resolution source is Binance, specifically BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices on Binance. That means the result depends on Binance market data rather than prices from other exchanges.

When does the Bitcoin $78,000 Apr 20-26 market resolve?

The market is set to resolve on April 27, 2026, after the April 20-26 trading window ends and the qualifying Binance data can be confirmed.

Why are traders watching the No side in this market?

Recent smart money activity notes a serial crypto bettor buying No, which may suggest some traders think Bitcoin is unlikely to touch $78,000 during this specific weekly window. Still, the outcome depends entirely on whether Binance prints that price before the deadline.

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will reach $78,000 at any point from April 20-26, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices as the resolution source. The market resolves to Yes if any qualifying 1-minute candle posts a high of $78,000 or more during that window; otherwise it resolves to No. It is scheduled to resolve on April 27, 2026.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,289.

Categories: Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring, Bitcoin, Weekly, Hit Price

Notable Trades

High-volume crypto specialist

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a solid 69% win rate is opening a fresh Bitcoin threshold position by effectively buying Yes around 54¢.

This bettor has made over 500 resolved bets, wins 69% of them, and is up about $19k lifetime
The trade was a sell of No at 46¢, which is the same as buying Yes at 54¢
They trade heavily across related markets with more than $1.0M in total volume, suggesting repeatable event-specific skill

$1,388 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial crypto bettor buys No

A high-volume serial crypto trader with a solid 69% win rate made a market-moving-sized buy on No in this BTC target market after a sharp price drop, making it a modest but still followable signal.

This bettor has won 69% of 563 resolved trades and has put over $1.5M to work
Their $1.9K buy was 76% of the market's prior 24h volume, showing real conviction for this market size
They bought No at 63¢ after the market fell 27% in a day, backing the view that $78k is unlikely this week

$1,901 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%