What is the Carlos Alcaraz 2026 US Open prediction market?

It is a prediction market on whether Carlos Alcaraz will win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

When does the Carlos Alcaraz US Open market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on September 13, 2026, the stated end date of the tournament.

What happens if Carlos Alcaraz cannot win the tournament?

If tournament rules make it impossible for Alcaraz to win, his market resolves to “No.”

What are the current odds for Carlos Alcaraz to win the 2026 US Open?

The supplied market metadata does not include a current price or implied probability. Check the live market page for updated Polymarket odds.

What smart money activity has been reported on this market?

PolySpotter reports $2,251 in tracked smart money and one signal, including headlines about coordinated No buying and a sharp bettor fading Alcaraz.

Part of: 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

This prediction market asks whether Carlos Alcaraz will win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament, scheduled for August 23 through September 13, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if Alcaraz wins and “No” if he becomes ineligible or another player wins; current odds were not included in the supplied data. PolySpotter tracks $2,251 in smart money and recent signals involving Alcaraz.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,326.

Categories: Sports, ATP, Tennis

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor fades Alcaraz

A highly profitable sharp bettor with 819 resolved positions and a substantial edge bought No on Alcaraz at 66 cents.

This bettor wins 84% of 819 resolved trades and is up $586,102 lifetime.
The wallet has achieved a 33-point edge over implied odds, making its No position more credible than a typical long-term futures bet.
Bought No at 66¢ despite strong recent market momentum toward Yes, signaling meaningful conviction that Alcaraz will not win.

$2,251 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp bettor leads coordinated No buying

A proven 80% bettor with a substantial positive edge is adding to No alongside two other wallets, creating meaningful coordinated conviction despite one weaker seller.

This bettor wins 80% of 570 resolved trades, is up $85,384, and has beaten implied odds by 16%.
Three wallets committed about $5,075 to No, including the sharp bettor adding to an existing $3,000 No position.
The effective entry is 80¢ for No, with the market already pricing Carlos Alcaraz at only a 20% chance to win.

$5,075 on No