Part of: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
This Polymarket asks whether the active-month CME crude oil (CL) futures contract will post an official settlement price of at least $200 on any trading day by June 30, 2026. Traders use this market to price the chances of an extreme oil spike, based on NYMEX WTI crude futures. The market resolves Yes if that $200 settlement happens before the final trading day of June 2026, and No otherwise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,490.
Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil
Notable Trades
91% win-rate oil bettor
A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a directional cross-market view on crude oil by effectively buying Yes at 10¢, which is notable despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $171k lifetime.
- They effectively bought Yes at 10¢ by selling No, a cheap entry on a macro market where informed views can matter.
- The alert links 2 bets in the same crude oil event, suggesting a broader directional thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
91% winner buying longshot
A high-win-rate trader is making a directional cross-market commodities bet here, and selling No at 89¢ effectively means buying Yes at 11¢ on a long-dated market.
- This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up about $171k lifetime.
- Selling No at 89¢ is effectively a buy on Yes around 11¢, a cheap longshot entry.
- The signal came from related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random one-off trade.
$1,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
80% win-rate oil thesis
A profitable 80% win-rate wallet is building a consistent cross-market oil thesis, buying the heavily favored No side in a large, liquid crude price market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $117k lifetime
- They have bet $13.3k across 3 related oil markets, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a one-off trade
- Buying No at 90¢ means following a high-probability stance in a deep market with tight spreads
$3,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
New whale buying long shot
A very new wallet has repeatedly made large bets and just put $13.35k into the long-shot Yes side of a macro market by selling No at 89¢, signaling concentrated conviction despite no track record yet.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 4 times for large bets, with $22.7k in total flagged activity.
- These trades effectively buy Yes at 11¢, a cheap entry for a high-upside macro bet.
- The bettor put $13.35k to work in a liquid market, which looks like fresh conviction rather than routine rebalancing.
$13,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
91% win-rate oil bettor
A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a directional view across related oil markets, and this trade effectively buys a low-priced tail outcome at 11¢.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $151k lifetime
- The trade is effectively a BUY on Yes at 11¢, a cheap tail bet on a sharp move in crude oil
- They are betting across 2 related oil markets, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
$3,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
91% win-rate oil bettor
A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a directional cross-market view on oil despite only a modest composite score, making this a notable sharp-trader signal.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $151k lifetime
- They are adding a directional view across 2 related oil markets, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, a cheap entry if they think the market is underpricing a big oil spike
$3,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $434,766 (32% win rate)
- 0xf041...dde5 — Yes, $141,774 (85% win rate)
- 0x4755...4158 — No, $89,841
- 0xc1a5...f290 — No, $82,759
- 0xc8b7...12b9 — No, $79,574 (65% win rate)
- 0x0e5b...a593 — No, $70,464 (54% win rate)
- 0x4047...7293 — No, $67,164 (54% win rate)
- 0x6127...d746 — No, $61,973
- 0xf467...935f — No, $61,536
- 0xd975...a205 — No, $57,094
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 3 related markets
