A 46-wallet wave bought the same side for $224K, including linked wallets sharing funders. This bettor has won 71% of 35 resolved bets and has traded across 39 events. Yes moved from their 79¢ entry to 88¢ during a 35x volume spike.

46 wallets are all moving the same way, with $223,894 backing Ecuador Yes. The market has surged hard: Yes is up 64 points in 24 hours on a 35x volume spike. This wallet has won 77% of 269 resolved bets, but these trades look partly like closing a prior No position.

Part of: Ecuador vs. Germany

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?

22 smart money signals detected, totaling $278,229.

Categories: Sports, Soccer, Games, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

New profitable wallet hit winner

A very new wallet with early profits bought Ecuador Yes at 83¢ ahead of a large volume spike and a move to 100¢.

This 3-day-old wallet has already been flagged 3 times and is up $799 across early positions.
The bettor bought Ecuador Yes at 83¢ before the market moved to 100¢.
Volume surged 43.8x and Yes jumped 66 percentage points, matching the direction of the bet.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

46-wallet Yes surge

Strong coordinated Yes flow with 46 wallets, major price momentum, and a serial cross-market bettor buying Ecuador at 79¢ before the move to 88¢.

A 46-wallet wave bought the same side for $224K, including linked wallets sharing funders.
This bettor has won 71% of 35 resolved bets and has traded across 39 events.
Yes moved from their 79¢ entry to 88¢ during a 35x volume spike.

$3,542 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

46-wallet Yes surge

Strong coordinated Yes flow and a major volume/price surge make this notable, although this wallet’s own trades appear partly to be closing a prior No position.

46 wallets are all moving the same way, with $223,894 backing Ecuador Yes.
The market has surged hard: Yes is up 64 points in 24 hours on a 35x volume spike.
This wallet has won 77% of 269 resolved bets, but these trades look partly like closing a prior No position.

$4,751 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

46-wallet one-sided surge

High-conviction coordinated Yes flow: 46 wallets bought the same side for $223k alongside a major volume spike and 61-point price move, despite this individual wallet having poor history.

46 wallets bought Yes together, totaling $223,894, with 4 wallets linked by a shared funder.
Yes jumped 61 points as volume spiked 35x above normal, suggesting a strong coordinated move.
This trader entered at 78¢ and Yes is now 88¢, so the copy window is near the suggested ceiling.

$7,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 46%

Proven bettor joins No crowd

A proven 71% wallet with broad cross-market history is backing No alongside a 31-wallet, $451k one-sided flow on a high-volume soccer market.

This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $24k lifetime across nearly $727k invested.
31 wallets are all betting No, totaling $451k in one-sided flow on this market.
This wallet is a serial cross-market trader, with bets across 74 events and 98 markets.

$5,978 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Elite bettor buying NO

Sharp wallet with 88% win rate and $3.3M profit is buying No on a high-volume Ecuador market, supported by a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $3.3M lifetime.
They have traded across 1,006 events with the same 88% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
They bought $10.4K of No around 80¢ as market volume spiked 82.6x above normal.

$14,379 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Elite bettor buying NO

Sharp wallet with 88% win rate and $3.3M profit is buying No on a high-volume Ecuador market, supported by a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $3.3M lifetime.
They have traded across 1,006 events with the same 88% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
They bought $10.4K of No around 80¢ as market volume spiked 82.6x above normal.

$10,414 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp wallets buying underdog

Surface because six wallets are all buying Ecuador Yes, including multiple profitable bettors with strong resolved records despite the trade being small versus market volume.

Six wallets are all taking Ecuador Yes, with entries around 22¢ on a market currently near 21¢.
Several buyers have strong records, including one up $2.38M across 1,871 resolved bets and another winning 81% of 48 resolved bets.
This is a coordinated underdog bet with a potential ~4.5x payout if Ecuador wins.

$9,648 on Yes

66-0 sports bettor

Surface: a proven sports bettor with a 66-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought Ecuador No, reinforced by serial cross-market success and a pre-event volume spike.

This bettor has won 100% of 66 resolved trades and is up $13.8k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 43 events with a perfect resolved record.
Bought No at 81¢ during a 28.8x pre-event volume spike.

$4,060 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Repeat new whale

A 17-day-old repeat whale is continuing to deploy meaningful size, though this specific bet is modest relative to a very liquid market.

This 17-day-old wallet has already had 16 large-bet flags totaling $436K.
The wallet is 4-for-4 on resolved bets so far, though its track record is still short.
Entry at 19¢ is a contrarian buy after Ecuador’s odds fell 5.7% today.

$9,052 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 13579265, $1,136,346
0xf031...c80c — Outcome 13579265, $972,023 (91% win rate)
0xc41d...74fd — Outcome 13579265, $136,390 (97% win rate)
0x709e...66f5 — Outcome 13579265, $99,105 (49% win rate)
0x9f49...8b89 — Outcome 13579265, $94,766 (100% win rate)
0x5451...616c — Outcome 13579265, $88,274 (100% win rate)
0x5660...54bf — Outcome 13579265, $87,715 (92% win rate)
0x4337...8882 — Outcome 13579265, $66,666 (75% win rate)
0x7d78...29a5 — Outcome 13579265, $66,577 (76% win rate)
0x484a...12f7 — Outcome 13579265, $59,400

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Cabo Verde keeps high-scoring match close

Covers 3 related markets

Spain Argentina or England wins

Covers 3 related markets

Morocco advances in low-scoring match

Covers 3 related markets

Ecuador will not win

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?

ResolvedEcuador vs. Germany$278,229 tracked22 signalsSportsSoccerGamesFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 25, 2026 If Ecuador wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Price History — “No”

85¢

78¢

71¢