What is the Ethereum $1,500 by 2026 prediction market?

This market lets traders predict whether Ethereum will trade at $1,500 or lower at any point, based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices, before the end of December 31, 2026 ET.

How does this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves Yes immediately if any Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle during the specified period has a final Low price of $1,500 or below. If that never happens, it resolves No after the market window closes.

What price source is used for ETH in this market?

The resolution source is Binance’s ETH/USDT market, specifically the Low price on 1-minute candles shown on the Binance trading chart.

When does the Ethereum $1,500 dip market end?

The observation window runs through December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET. If ETH never touches $1,500 or lower during the window, the market resolves No on January 1, 2027 UTC.

What smart money activity is tracked for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,300 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market, including recent alerts such as high-conviction crypto cross-market and winner thesis changes.

Part of: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Ethereum will dip to $1,500 or lower by December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if any Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026 has a Low price at or below $1,500; otherwise it resolves No after the deadline.

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $62,446.

Categories: Ethereum, Crypto Prices, Hit Price, Crypto, Yearly

Notable Trades

Profitable ETH downside bettor

Profitable wallet is building a cross-market Ethereum downside thesis, converting this SELL No into a BUY Yes at 54¢.

This bettor is up $29.4K lifetime and has won 67% of 33 resolved trades.
They have placed $9.3K across 4 related Ethereum dip markets, suggesting a broader downside thesis.
Selling No at 46¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 54¢, with the market moving 5 points higher this week.

$2,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

92% crypto cross-market sharp

A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is making a cross-market ETH downside thesis, but this specific trade is modest and follows a closed opposite position.

This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades and is up about $69.8K lifetime.
They are active across 3 related ETH markets with $42.5K positioned, suggesting a broader crypto thesis.
This trade buys No at 62¢ after the market fell 9 points this week, implying they doubt ETH hits $1,500 by end-2026.

$1,488 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% winner flips thesis

High-win-rate wallet with strong lifetime profit is expressing a broader cross-market ETH thesis by buying No despite prior closed Yes exposure.

This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades and is up about $69.8K lifetime.
They have $42.5K positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader ETH thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Buying No at 61¢ goes against the market’s recent drift toward Yes, implying confidence that ETH stays above $1,500 through 2026.

$1,510 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable wallet flips to NO

A profitable 91% win-rate wallet is making a $12.7k cross-market bet on No, now available much cheaper than most of its fills.

This bettor has won 21 of 23 resolved bets and is up $62.6k lifetime.
They put $12.7k on No here and $18.5k across 3 related ETH markets.
Most of their No fills were at 85–86¢, while the market is now around 60¢.

$12,671 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

91% winner flips to NO

A historically profitable wallet with a 91% resolved-bet win rate has flipped from a prior Yes position into No while also positioning across three related ETH dip markets.

This bettor has won 21 of 23 resolved bets and is up $62.6K lifetime.
They previously held Yes here but closed it and are now buying No, signaling a directional flip.
The wallet has $21.1K positioned across 3 related ETH dip markets.

$1,155 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

88% winner flips to No

A profitable 88% win-rate wallet flipped from a prior Yes position into a fresh $4.7k No bet on a very quiet related market, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than routine flow.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k lifetime.
They just placed a fresh $4.7k No bet that was more than 10x this market's prior 24-hour volume.
They've bet $24.6k across 3 related ETH dip markets, pointing to a broader downside view on the specific threshold path.

$4,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

85% winner buying No

A profitable wallet with an 85% win rate is expressing a cross-market ETH downside view here, and the sell of Yes converts into a buyable No entry around 54¢.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $21k lifetime
They bet nearly $18k across 2 related ETH markets, pointing to a broader downside thesis
Selling Yes at 46¢ is equivalent to buying No at 54¢, close to current pricing

$1,732 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

85% win-rate crypto bettor

This looks worth surfacing because a bettor with an 85% win rate is adding a fresh cross-market crypto thesis, even though the single trade size is modest and the market is fairly liquid.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $21k lifetime
They are betting across 2 related markets in the same ETH event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
They bought Yes at 51¢ in a liquid market, a near-even entry that leaves room if their view is right

$1,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

80% winner doubles down

A profitable wallet with an 80% win rate just put $35k across two related ETH downside markets, showing a clear cross-market thesis despite mixed entry prices.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $20.7k lifetime.
They put $35.4k into the same ETH thesis across 2 related markets, which is a stronger signal than a one-off bet.
The best fills were around 50-54¢ on No, while the market now sits near 52¢.

$35,373 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%