Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether Bitcoin will trade at or below $50,000 on any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle low between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026 ET. It resolves after the window closes, with Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute low prices as the source; PolySpotter is tracking $5,820 in smart money activity and 2 smart money signals for this market.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
33 smart money signals detected, totaling $186,286.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
88-for-88 BTC bettor
Surfacing because a wallet with an 88-for-88 resolved record and positive lifetime P&L is taking a cross-market BTC downside position.
- This bettor has won 88 of 88 resolved bets and is up $51k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related Bitcoin dip markets with $43k total exposure.
- Buying No at 61¢ suggests they expect Bitcoin to avoid a $50k low through 2026.
$1,826 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable 76% crypto bettor
Sharp-wallet override: this profitable bettor has a 76% record over 17 resolved bets and is buying Yes on a plausible crypto downside thesis.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $21.6K lifetime.
- Their past wins came at roughly even-money prices, suggesting real edge rather than only picking favorites.
- A $4.0K Yes buy at 43¢ implies they see meaningful upside in a Bitcoin dip to $50K before 2027.
$3,994 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Cross-market BTC dip bettor
A single wallet is building a $33.5k cross-market thesis that Bitcoin will make a deep drawdown, including buying the equivalent of Yes here at 44¢.
- This wallet has put $33.5k across 4 related Bitcoin dip markets, pointing to a clear drawdown thesis.
- The bettor is 12-for-12 on resolved markets, though past wins were mostly at very high odds.
- Entry at 44¢ is close to the live market and implies they see meaningful upside if BTC revisits $50k by 2026.
$4,529 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
99% winner in funded cluster
Surface: a highly profitable 99% win-rate wallet in a 15-wallet funded cluster is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market BTC dip thesis.
- This bettor has won 82 of 83 resolved bets and is up about $64.8k lifetime.
- The wallet is part of a 15-wallet funded group, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- They have put $11.1k across 3 related BTC dip markets, pointing to a broader No thesis.
$1,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 99%
76% winner buying BTC dip
Profitable 76% lifetime wallet is effectively buying Yes on a BTC $50K dip, with related positioning across two markets.
- This bettor has won 76% of 268 resolved bets and is up $19K lifetime.
- They have $4.1K positioned across 2 related Bitcoin dip markets.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 38¢, matching the current best ask.
$1,622 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
94% winner fading BTC crash
Sharp 94% winner with positive lifetime P&L is making a large cross-market Bitcoin downside-fade bet, adding nearly $29k to No across a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $75k lifetime.
- They have $74k spread across 5 related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This $29k buy was over 6x the market’s recent 24h volume, a strong conviction move in a quieter book.
$28,968 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable BTC event trader
Proven profitable wallet with a 77% win rate and strong edge is trading both sides/cross-market in a BTC dip market, suggesting a more complex view than a simple one-way copy.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved positions and is up $43k lifetime.
- They have beaten their average entry odds by a wide margin across 71 resolved bets.
- They are active across 2 related BTC dip markets, suggesting a deliberate event-level thesis.
$3,252 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
88% win-rate BTC thesis
An 88% win-rate wallet with a strong cross-market Bitcoin thesis added another position by buying No at 57¢, making this a credible trader to follow despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k lifetime
- They have put $79.3k across 5 related Bitcoin markets, showing a coordinated event-wide view
- They bought No at 57¢, meaning the copyable side is Yes not hitting $50k above 43¢
$1,132 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
88% winner doubling down
A high-win-rate cross-market bettor is scaling heavily into the same Bitcoin thesis across 5 related markets, and this market alone saw nearly $28k of buying despite a large mark-to-market drawdown.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k overall.
- They placed $63.6k across 5 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a clear event-wide thesis.
- They kept buying No from 85¢ down to 55¢, signaling conviction even after the market moved against them.
$27,789 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
88% winner betting event-wide
A high-win-rate wallet with strong cross-market positioning spent $26.7k building a No position across 5 related BTC dip markets, suggesting a deliberate event-wide thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $28.4k lifetime
- They put $62.4k across 5 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a coordinated event-wide view
- This market is now 56¢ No after they bought as high as 85¢, so the copied entry is meaningfully better than theirs
$26,658 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xcc50...4c82 — No, $121,554 (44% win rate)
- 0x5371...76eb — No, $90,317 (100% win rate)
- 0x861f...177d — Yes, $70,276 (44% win rate)
- 0x1465...7072 — No, $58,326 (92% win rate)
- 0x6131...fd16 — Yes, $46,304 (50% win rate)
- 0x67ae...0f0a — No, $35,890 (100% win rate)
- 0x8b14...d0b1 — Yes, $34,318 (71% win rate)
- 0x41b8...1c0d — Yes, $26,688 (100% win rate)
- 0x60bf...15aa — Yes, $26,461
- 0x33ba...9dbd — Yes, $24,947 (55% win rate)
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