17 wallets put about $147k on No, a strong one-sided move even in a liquid market. One aligned bettor wins 95% of resolved bets and is up about $353k lifetime. Several repeat cross-market sports traders are involved, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a single large order.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $150K lifetime. They are adding to an existing Yes position, now with about $5K already invested at a 30¢ average entry. This wallet has traded across 54 events with the same 80% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.

Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $765,732.

Categories: Soccer, Sports, Games, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

17-wallet No cluster

Large 17-wallet cluster bought No on a highly liquid France-Spain draw market, with several experienced sports/cross-market traders and one very sharp wallet aligned via a Yes sell.

17 wallets put about $147k on No, a strong one-sided move even in a liquid market.
One aligned bettor wins 95% of resolved bets and is up about $353k lifetime.
Several repeat cross-market sports traders are involved, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a single large order.

$146,969 on No

95% winner adding size

A highly profitable sports bettor with a 95% resolved win rate is adding to an already large Yes position at 30¢.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
They are adding to a large existing Yes position, now with over $110K committed around 30¢.
This wallet has traded across 46 events with a strong track record, suggesting this is part of a repeatable sports edge.

$59,029 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

80% sharp adding Yes

Proven profitable wallet with an 80% resolved win rate is adding to an existing Yes position ahead of a high-volume France-Spain draw market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $150K lifetime.
They are adding to an existing Yes position, now with about $5K already invested at a 30¢ average entry.
This wallet has traded across 54 events with the same 80% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.

$1,429 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

95% winner adding size

A highly profitable sports bettor with a 95% resolved win rate is adding to an already large Yes position at 30¢.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
They are adding to a large existing Yes position, now with over $110K committed around 30¢.
This wallet has traded across 46 events with a strong track record, suggesting this is part of a repeatable sports edge.

$25,161 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

83% winner adding draw

Surfacing because a sports bettor with a strong 83% record is adding to an existing Yes position at 30¢, though the bet is modest relative to market liquidity.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 59 positions, with entries averaging around 48¢.
They already had $9,000 on Yes and added another $2,700 at the same 30¢ price.
Entry at 30¢ implies a 3.3x payout if the match ends level after 90 minutes.

$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Sharp wallets buying draw

Large coordinated Yes buying is worth surfacing because an elite 98% winning wallet and a profitable new whale are adding heavily to an already large draw position despite the price moving against them.

A bettor who wins 98% of tracked bets has put over $760K into this same Yes position and added another large buy at 33¢.
11 wallets are all betting Yes for $305K total, with several adding to existing positions near game time.
A new 8-day wallet with $398K profit is also buying Yes, suggesting strong conviction despite the market now pricing it lower at 28¢.

$305,445 on Yes

99% winner adding big

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 99% resolved win rate is adding to a large Yes position on the draw at 30¢.

This bettor has won 68 of 69 resolved positions and is up $3.19M lifetime.
They already have $750K on Yes and just added another $75K at 30¢.
This is a seasoned cross-market trader with $3.6M tracked across 83 events.

$75,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

99% winner adds to draw

Elite 99% winning sports bettor is adding $150k to an existing $500k Yes position at 30¢, signaling strong conviction on the draw.

This bettor has won 68 of 69 resolved trades and is up $3.19M lifetime.
They added $150k at 30¢ on top of an existing $500k position in the same direction.
This wallet has traded 99 markets across 81 events with a 99% win record.

$150,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 83785114, $2,079,643
0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 21567767, $959,298 (58% win rate)
0xf031...c80c — Outcome 21567767, $762,224 (90% win rate)
0x7d6d...2654 — Outcome 21567767, $761,726 (98% win rate)
0xe549...2d54 — Outcome 21567767, $750,000 (99% win rate)
0xc430...1ebf — Outcome 21567767, $361,896 (95% win rate)
0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 21567767, $82,717 (62% win rate)
0x1fd7...401f — Outcome 21567767, $71,664 (100% win rate)
0x7583...4df2 — Outcome 21567767, $50,000 (86% win rate)
0x3608...b13d — Outcome 21567767, $44,500 (47% win rate)

Related Theses

Spain Argentina or England wins

Covers 3 related markets

Cabo Verde keeps high-scoring match close

Covers 3 related markets

Croatia wins on June 23

Covers 1 related market

Bosnia Qatar stays low scoring

Covers 1 related market

Brazil Japan ends in draw

Covers 1 related market

Bosnia covers against United States

Covers 1 related market

Spain wins by three plus

Covers 1 related market

England advances past Argentina

Covers 1 related market

Jordan Argentina ends in draw

Covers 2 related markets

Belgium fails to win

Covers 1 related market

Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?

Resolved$765,732 tracked8 signalsSoccerSportsGamesFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 14, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “No”

72¢

70¢

67¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction