Part of: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,361.

Categories: Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Geopolitics, Naval, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial geopolitics bettor buys NO

Serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved-bet record and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a geopolitical market despite a recent move toward Yes.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 298 resolved bets and is up $39K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 39 events and 49 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market thesis.
  • Buying No at 85¢ fades a recent Yes-side move, with No still available near the market price.

$1,361 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

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Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$1,361 tracked1 signalOilStrait of HormuzIranGeopoliticsNavalU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Notable Trades

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

2026-05-07 18:22 UTC

$1,361 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

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