Part of: June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,709.

Categories: Global Temp, Weather, Science

Notable Trades

Profitable niche forecaster

Experienced profitable wallet is taking a meaningful Yes position in a thin climate market while also positioning across the same event and after a sharp odds move.

This bettor has 173 resolved trades and is up $55.5K lifetime.
The buy was large for this quiet market, equal to 71% of the last 24 hours of volume.
They are also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader June temperature thesis.

$4,796 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable niche forecaster

Experienced profitable wallet is taking a meaningful Yes position in a thin climate market while also positioning across the same event and after a sharp odds move.

This bettor has 173 resolved trades and is up $55.5K lifetime.
The buy was large for this quiet market, equal to 71% of the last 24 hours of volume.
They are also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader June temperature thesis.

$1,913 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

0xe3a1...64a3 — Outcome 26814384, $6,200 (40% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 26814384, $4,527
0x7300...e52c — Outcome 26814384, $578
0x1cdd...e595 — Outcome 26814384, $120
0x0c15...03de — Outcome 26814384, $67
0x5ab5...7f17 — Outcome 26814384, $52
0x4916...f56f — Outcome 26814384, $33
0x3a3b...1de5 — Outcome 26814384, $25
0xbe0e...d429 — Outcome 26814384, $20
0x8ccd...da80 — Outcome 26814384, $10

Related Theses

July warming hits 1.20-1.24°C

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026?

ResolvedJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)$6,709 tracked2 signalsGlobal TempWeatherScience

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.