Part of: Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will participate in any official match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It resolves by August 2, 2026, or earlier if FIFA or Iran’s football federation officially announces Iran’s removal or withdrawal. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,000 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from a perfect 41-for-41 bettor backing the favorite.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran participates in any official game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran of the nation’s removal or withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup will immediately resolve this market "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,423.
Categories: 2026 FIFA World Cup, FIFA World Cup, FIFA, Iran, Sports, Soccer
Notable Trades
Proven winner backs favorite
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a 78% record across 40 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $1.5K lifetime.
- They put $2,000 on Yes at 90¢, backing Iran to play in the 2026 World Cup.
- The bet is in a relatively quiet market, so the order is meaningful versus recent activity.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
44-0 sharp buyer
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 44-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought Yes, making this worth surfacing despite only a modest composite score.
- This bettor is 44-for-44 on resolved markets and is up $6,984 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 88¢ in a quiet market, with the trade equal to 78% of the past day’s volume.
- Entry at 88¢ suggests they see limited risk that Iran misses the 2026 World Cup.
$1,423 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect 41-for-41 bettor
A bettor with a perfect 41-for-41 resolved record and positive P&L is buying Yes on Iran playing in the 2026 World Cup, despite the market already pricing it as likely.
- This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved trades and is up $6.4K lifetime.
- They are buying Yes at 88¢, implying confidence even after a 6-point move today.
- The bet is modest at $1K, but it stands out because of the wallet’s flawless track record.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9351...9e4d — Yes, $79,010 (86% win rate)
- 0x5f17...519e — Yes, $33,702 (90% win rate)
- 0x6c10...df5c — Yes, $24,952 (65% win rate)
- 0xc6f3...cf8e — No, $24,475
- 0x0482...6b0a — No, $20,565 (32% win rate)
- 0x6992...6c1d — No, $15,799 (33% win rate)
- 0x3328...e6b8 — Yes, $15,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x10e1...aa05 — No, $12,001 (18% win rate)
- 0x454e...62b9 — Yes, $11,437
- 0x993f...3ee3 — Yes, $11,353 (69% win rate)
Related Theses
No Iran peace deal
Covers 2 related markets
