Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $73,542.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor fades draw

A proven profitable wallet with an 83% record is fading the draw, making this worth surfacing despite the market being highly liquid.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $151,963 lifetime.
They sold the draw at 11¢, equivalent to buying Norway/Iraq not to draw at 89¢.
The wallet has beaten average implied odds by 31 points across 12 resolved positions.

$7,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Sharp bettor joins draw cluster

Surface because one wallet in the one-sided Yes cluster has a strong 83% resolved-bet record and large lifetime profit, though the overall cluster is small relative to this very liquid market.

One bettor in this cluster wins 83% of resolved bets and is up about $152k lifetime.
Four wallets all backed the draw side, totaling about $6k in a short burst.
The best sharp entry was around 10–11¢, implying a high-upside longshot if the draw probability is mispriced.

$5,973 on Yes

Sharp 5-wallet draw cluster

Surface: a profitable 83% winner is leading a 5-wallet, $34.6k one-sided buy on the low-probability draw outcome.

A bettor who wins 83% of resolved bets and is up $152k is buying this draw heavily.
Five wallets put $34.6k on the same side, mostly at 10–11¢.
Entry around 11¢ implies a roughly 9x payout if Iraq vs. Norway ends level.

$34,638 on Yes

Profitable serial sports trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No near kickoff amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor has a huge track record: 18,319 resolved bets and $3.8M in lifetime profit.
They have traded across 470 events, suggesting a systematic sports edge rather than a one-off bet.
Market activity spiked 48.7x above normal before the match, with this wallet buying No at 86¢.

$5,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable newer wallet

A profitable newer wallet made a $20k draw bet just before the match amid a 48.7x pre-event volume spike, though the market is fairly liquid and the wallet's win rate is only moderate.

This newer bettor is up $51k on $201k invested across 85 resolved trades.
They put $20k on the draw at 14¢, slightly below the current 16¢ market price.
Market volume spiked 48.7x before kickoff, suggesting broader money is moving into this outcome.

$20,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 82322446, $672,284
0x5d68...9ff7 — Outcome 33611416, $142,857 (55% win rate)
0x44a1...bd21 — Outcome 33611416, $53,893 (58% win rate)
0x5ad7...ae48 — Outcome 33611416, $50,866 (75% win rate)
0x94e4...87e0 — Outcome 33611416, $41,733 (20% win rate)
0x9703...69c2 — Outcome 33611416, $37,431
0x8b2c...d7e6 — Outcome 33611416, $36,429 (100% win rate)
0x37d3...709a — Outcome 33611416, $31,537 (37% win rate)
0x84cf...2f63 — Outcome 33611416, $28,032 (48% win rate)
0xd6ab...4408 — Outcome 33611416, $26,270

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Saudi Arabia beats Uruguay

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?

ResolvedIraq vs. Norway$73,542 tracked5 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 16, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.