Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,175.

Notable Trades

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

$5,175 | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9b5e...7656 Yes, $19,167 (63% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $11,663
  3. 0xd4f2...e3ef No, $7,353 (78% win rate)
  4. 0xb794...3bef No, $6,894 (71% win rate)
  5. 0x5227...5df1 No, $4,920 (86% win rate)
  6. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $2,406
  7. 0xf9b7...60a4 Yes, $2,278 (60% win rate)
  8. 0xe372...eb38 Yes, $749
  9. 0xafbc...18c6 Yes, $731
  10. 0x5157...942b Yes, $601

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

271d$5,175 tracked1 signalIsraelIranMiddle EastPoliticsGeopoliticsWorld
Yes
29¢
No
71¢

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

3h ago

$5,175

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | PolySpotter