Part of: Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,311.

Categories: gaming, Culture, streamer, Minecraft, IShowSpeed, Live Streams

Notable Trades

Proven bettors converging on Yes

Three wallets, including highly profitable bettors with strong long-term records, are adding or switching into Yes after a 49.5% one-day price surge.

  • Three wallets committed $15,121 to Yes, including one 81% winner with $459,273 in lifetime profit.
  • Two bettors are adding to existing Yes positions, while the third effectively bought Yes by selling No at 28¢.
  • Yes has surged 49.5% in one day, showing the coordinated buying is moving with strong momentum.

$15,121 on Yes

87% win-rate trader adds to No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 87% win rate is adding to a substantial No position during a major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 87% of 291 resolved trades and earned $202,386 in P&L.
  • They are adding $2,778 to an existing $11,564 No position, signaling continued conviction.
  • The market saw a 14.2x historical volume spike, while No is available around 78¢.

$2,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable serial trader bets heavily on No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 74% win rate made a concentrated $13,675 bet on No at 86¢, representing nearly 65% of 24-hour volume.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 3,717 resolved trades and is up $4.17 million.
  • The $13,675 No bet at 86¢ accounts for 64.8% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The trader previously closed a Yes position, suggesting a fresh shift toward No rather than routine profit-taking.

$8,770 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial trader bets heavily on No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 74% win rate made a concentrated $13,675 bet on No at 86¢, representing nearly 65% of 24-hour volume.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 3,717 resolved trades and is up $4.17 million.
  • The $13,675 No bet at 86¢ accounts for 64.8% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The trader previously closed a Yes position, suggesting a fresh shift toward No rather than routine profit-taking.

$13,675 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Three-wallet cluster scaling into No

Three wallets added nearly $4.9K to No, representing substantial concentrated conviction despite mixed track records and existing positions.

  • Three wallets added nearly $4,867 to No, equal to roughly 65% of listed market liquidity.
  • One bettor wins 70% of 54 resolved trades and is up $7,497 lifetime.
  • All three wallets already held No and increased their positions around 77–78¢, signaling continued conviction rather than a one-off entry.

$8,966 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x5109...5e9c Outcome 22233946, $74,296 (40% win rate)
  2. 0x07f8...15a0 Outcome 22233946, $57,638
  3. 0x4b9f...e125 Outcome 22233946, $39,753 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x0298...93c4 Outcome 22233946, $33,156 (63% win rate)
  5. 0xc6b6...13ac Outcome 22233946, $32,975 (56% win rate)
  6. 0x498c...42bf Outcome 22233946, $28,347 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xf68a...5b1b Outcome 22233946, $27,500 (53% win rate)
  8. 0x7234...1d85 Outcome 22233946, $23,500 (85% win rate)
  9. 0xa9a6...0009 Outcome 22233946, $16,000 (88% win rate)
  10. 0xc15b...38af Outcome 22233946, $10,648 (81% win rate)

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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

ResolvedKai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?$49,311 tracked5 signalsgamingCulturestreamerMinecraftIShowSpeedLive Streams

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge live on stream between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All four objectives must be completed on the same seed and in the same world. Progress across multiple seeds will not be combined. Any successful attempt within the specified timeframe will qualify; however, no challenge progress may be carried over following an in-game death and the beginning of a new attempt. Practice or casual worlds not set to Hardcore will not count. No event will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only completion of the challenge as defined above will qualify. If Kai and Speed modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode, any completion achieved under the modified rules will not count toward resolution. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
57¢
11¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

11d ago

$15,121 on Yes at 70¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

11d ago

$2,778 on No at 78¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

14d ago

$8,770 on No at 86¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

14d ago

$13,675 on No at 86¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

15d ago

$8,966 on No at 77¢

Related Theses