Part of: Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City
Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $543,579.
Categories: FA Community Shield, Sports, Games, Soccer
Notable Trades
Whale scaling into No
A $513,000 addition to an existing No position drove an extreme 3,121x historical volume spike, signaling strong conviction despite limited track-record evidence.
- A bettor committed another $513,000 to No, bringing the position to roughly $1.38 million.
- The trade helped trigger a 3,121x spike versus historical volume, making it unusually large for this market.
- The wallet is 1-0 on resolved bets, but that track record is too small to treat as proven expertise.
$513,453 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp bettor leads three-wallet Yes cluster
Three wallets coordinated $6,510 of Yes buying, including a highly profitable 81% winner, while the price has risen from 37–38¢ to 40¢.
- A bettor with an 81% win rate across 115 resolved markets and $6.1M reported profit bought Yes at 38¢.
- Three wallets placed $6,510 of coordinated Yes bets, with entries at 37–38¢ as the market moved to 40¢.
- The cluster is meaningful despite a liquid market, though one participating wallet has a losing overall record and an existing Yes position.
$10,939 on Yes
90% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding to a large Yes position at 37%, making this a strong sharp-trader signal.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades—55 of 61—with $602,381 in reported profit.
- They are adding $2,220 to an existing $44,824 Yes position at 37%, signaling continued conviction.
- The 37¢ entry implies the bettor sees meaningful upside versus the market's 36% Yes probability.
$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding to a large Yes position at 37%, making this a strong sharp-trader signal.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades—55 of 61—with $602,381 in reported profit.
- They are adding $2,220 to an existing $44,824 Yes position at 37%, signaling continued conviction.
- The 37¢ entry implies the bettor sees meaningful upside versus the market's 36% Yes probability.
$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding to a large Yes position at 37%, making this a strong sharp-trader signal.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades—55 of 61—with $602,381 in reported profit.
- They are adding $2,220 to an existing $44,824 Yes position at 37%, signaling continued conviction.
- The 37¢ entry implies the bettor sees meaningful upside versus the market's 36% Yes probability.
$2,220 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable serial bettor with a 90% win rate is adding $9,620 to an already large Manchester City Yes position at 37%.
- This bettor has won 90% of 61 resolved positions and is up $602,381 lifetime.
- They added $9,620 to an existing $44,824 Yes position, signaling increased conviction at 37¢.
- The 37¢ entry implies roughly a 2.7x payout if Manchester City wins, with the trade representing over half of detected 24-hour volume.
$9,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Proven sharp scaling into Manchester City
A highly profitable, proven bettor with an 83% win rate is adding to an existing Manchester City position at 36¢.
- This bettor has won 83% of 242 resolved trades and earned $576,120 in profit.
- The wallet is adding $3,647 to an existing $10,000 Yes position at 36¢.
- The 36¢ entry implies Manchester City is substantially undervalued versus the market’s current 64% No price.
$3,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xf031...c80c — Outcome 14035102, $1,800,148 (87% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11303615, $1,133,722
- 0x4d30...a42d — Outcome 14035102, $49,849 (91% win rate)
- 0x8372...5223 — Outcome 14035102, $47,309 (81% win rate)
- 0x2a69...d2f7 — Outcome 14035102, $37,684 (71% win rate)
- 0x709e...66f5 — Outcome 14035102, $29,467 (49% win rate)
- 0x934b...cc23 — Outcome 14035102, $22,383 (100% win rate)
- 0x60c1...0438 — Outcome 14035102, $20,000 (80% win rate)
- 0x0353...c2ff — Outcome 14035102, $20,000 (82% win rate)
- 0x5901...63a2 — Outcome 14035102, $15,451 (90% win rate)
Related Theses
Belgium advances in low-scoring match
Covers 3 related markets
