Four wallets bought $30.5K of No within minutes, all entering around 64¢. One participating bettor is up $785.9K lifetime and has traded across 100 events. The market saw a 16.6x pre-game volume spike, and No has already moved from 64¢ to 66¢.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $1.29M lifetime. They are a serial sports trader across 45 events with the same 87% win record. Market volume spiked 240x before the game, and this sharp wallet bought No at 64¢.

Part of: Mexico vs. Ecuador

Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $450,020.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Four-wallet No push

Four wallets bought $30.5K of No into a pre-game volume spike, including a profitable high-volume cross-market trader, though the market is very liquid.

Four wallets bought $30.5K of No within minutes, all entering around 64¢.
One participating bettor is up $785.9K lifetime and has traded across 100 events.
The market saw a 16.6x pre-game volume spike, and No has already moved from 64¢ to 66¢.

$30,485 on No

New whale buying draw

A 21-day-old repeat large bettor put $78k on the draw at 36¢ amid a 20x pre-event volume spike, though the wallet has little resolved track record.

A new repeat whale put $78k on Yes at 36¢ across four buys.
This wallet has now triggered large-bet alerts 5 times, totaling about $95.6k flagged.
Market volume is surging 20x versus normal ahead of the match, supporting the move.

$78,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

87% win sports sharp

Sharp sports bettor with an 87% resolved win record and $1.29M lifetime profit bought No on a high-volume Mexico–Ecuador draw market amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $1.29M lifetime.
They are a serial sports trader across 45 events with the same 87% win record.
Market volume spiked 240x before the game, and this sharp wallet bought No at 64¢.

$18,731 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

84% serial event trader

Serial cross-market sports bettor with an 84% resolved hit rate is buying the draw at 36¢, though lifetime P&L is roughly flat.

This bettor has won 84% of 51 resolved bets, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 33 markets and 26 events.
Entry at 36¢ implies about a 2.8x payout if the match ends in a draw.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

92% win-rate sports sharp

Sharp sports bettor with a 92% win rate and $398k lifetime profit bought Draw Yes at 37¢.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $398k lifetime.
They have traded 329 markets across 298 events, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
Entry at 37¢ implies they see the draw as underpriced despite a very liquid market.

$5,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Profitable high-volume sports trader with a long track record is buying No, alongside one-sided flow from four wallets.

This bettor has a huge track record: 5,216 resolved bets, 64% wins, and $2.6M in lifetime profit.
Four wallets are all buying No on the draw, totaling about $34.7K in one-sided flow.
Entry at 64¢ implies they see Ecuador vs. Mexico not ending in a draw as underpriced.

$2,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Sharp-backed $268K draw cluster

Large one-sided Yes flow is supported by a highly profitable 87% win-rate wallet, a repeat new whale, and a major pre-event volume spike.

A bettor who wins 87% of resolved trades is backing this side and is up $1.29M lifetime.
Five wallets bought the draw for $268K total, far outweighing the smaller $35K opposing cluster.
Market volume spiked 67x before the match, with Yes holding near 36¢ after a 3-point move up.

$268,201 on Yes

95% winner buying No

Elite 95% winning wallet bought $10.1k of No, supported by one-sided flow from 4 wallets and a major pre-game volume spike.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $295k lifetime.
They put $10.1k on No at 64¢, joining 4 wallets that bought the same side for $34.7k total.
This is a proven cross-market sports trader with 228 events tracked and a 95% hit rate.

$10,106 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Profitable high-volume sports trader with a long track record is buying No, alongside one-sided flow from four wallets.

This bettor has a huge track record: 5,216 resolved bets, 64% wins, and $2.6M in lifetime profit.
Four wallets are all buying No on the draw, totaling about $34.7K in one-sided flow.
Entry at 64¢ implies they see Ecuador vs. Mexico not ending in a draw as underpriced.

$2,081 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

87% win sports sharp

Sharp sports bettor with an 87% resolved win record and $1.29M lifetime profit bought No on a high-volume Mexico–Ecuador draw market amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $1.29M lifetime.
They are a serial sports trader across 45 events with the same 87% win record.
Market volume spiked 240x before the game, and this sharp wallet bought No at 64¢.

$7,398 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

0x09b4...7320 — Outcome 11866110, $5,234,990
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 43985168, $2,699,973
0xe221...06f6 — Outcome 11866110, $324,960 (100% win rate)
0x50f0...5355 — Outcome 11866110, $323,135 (100% win rate)
0xe549...2d54 — Outcome 11866110, $318,816 (98% win rate)
0x095f...90b2 — Outcome 11866110, $296,417 (100% win rate)
0xb45a...192c — Outcome 43985168, $199,999 (47% win rate)
0xcd30...f316 — Outcome 11866110, $161,496 (100% win rate)
0xee67...ef38 — Outcome 11866110, $65,830 (71% win rate)
0x44a1...bd21 — Outcome 11866110, $40,210 (59% win rate)

Related Theses

Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?

ResolvedMexico vs. Ecuador$450,020 tracked15 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 30, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “No”

80¢

73¢

65¢