Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $260,251.

Categories: Games, Sports, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Profitable pro plus 11-wallet cluster

A highly profitable, high-volume soccer bettor bought No at 58¢ alongside an 11-wallet one-sided cluster before the market moved to 100¢.

This bettor is up $4.2M lifetime and has traded over $315M across 47,000 resolved bets.
11 wallets all bought No in the same window, totaling about $69K with some linked funding.
The trade entered at 58¢ before No moved to 100¢, suggesting the flow caught a major mispricing.

$24,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Linked cluster buying No

Strong market-wide one-sided flow into No, with 11 wallets buying the same direction and a 29-point move, though this specific wallet was closing a losing Yes position.

11 wallets pushed the same No side for about $69K, including linked funding between two wallets.
Yes fell 29 points as volume spiked 21.8x above its normal pace.
This specific trade was a Yes exit, but it converts to buying No at 87¢.

$1,115 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Sharp cluster fading draw

High-conviction one-sided flow into No, backed by an 81% winning wallet and a profitable new repeat bettor, despite some smaller opposing draw buying.

Eight wallets put $36.8k on No, including several buys that are already up from 58¢ to about 70¢.
One bettor in the cluster wins 81% of their resolved bets and is up about $12.9k lifetime.
A 10-day-old repeat bettor with $13.9k profit is also on the same side, adding to the No conviction.

$36,774 on No

14-wallet linked No cluster

A large linked-wallet cluster and multiple profitable sports bettors piled into No on a high-volume soccer draw market, moving No from about 58¢ to 86¢.

14 wallets put $79k on No, with some linked by shared funding.
Several experienced bettors joined, including one who wins 81% of bets and is up $12.9k.
No jumped from about 58¢ to 86¢ after the flow, showing strong market impact.

$79,334 on No

Profitable serial bettor plus 11-wallet flow

A profitable high-volume serial trader added $40.7k on No alongside an 11-wallet one-sided flow and major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor has won 64% of 933 resolved bets and is up $371k lifetime.
11 wallets bought the same side, totaling $103k on No.
One fill came at 58¢ before No moved to 70¢, showing the trader caught the move early.

$40,699 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

Sharp cluster bought draw

A 10-wallet Yes cluster includes profitable/sharp traders and heavy cross-market sports bettors, but the position has moved sharply against their 45–47¢ entries to 14¢.

10 wallets put $54.8K on the draw side, including several high-volume sports bettors.
One bettor in the cluster wins 75% of resolved positions and is up $43K lifetime.
The trade is high-conviction but risky: they entered around 46¢ and the market has since fallen to 14¢.

$54,817 on Yes

81% sports bettor

A bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and strong odds-adjusted edge bought the draw at 24¢, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.

This bettor has won 13 of 16 resolved positions, beating average market odds by a wide margin.
They bought the draw at 24¢, implying a potential ~4x payout if New Zealand vs. Egypt ends level.
The market is highly liquid, so this looks more like a track-record follow than a thin-market information edge.

$3,260 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

90% winner backs draw

Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved win record and strong profit bought $19.5k of the draw at 24¢.

This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved bets and is up $22.7k lifetime.
They put $19.5k on the draw at 24¢, a sizable single-position bet.
Their past wins came at much longer odds on average, suggesting real edge rather than just favorites.

$19,453 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11274207, $245,918
0x2c17...38ef — Outcome 10657344, $127,117
0x87b9...d4b6 — Outcome 10657344, $97,805 (99% win rate)
0xaa07...2125 — Outcome 10657344, $92,600 (52% win rate)
0x35e2...9dcb — Outcome 10657344, $43,829 (81% win rate)
0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 10657344, $25,661 (63% win rate)
0x4e05...7720 — Outcome 10657344, $23,000 (93% win rate)
0x896e...53f2 — Outcome 10657344, $18,943 (85% win rate)
0x5b63...11a4 — Outcome 10657344, $12,082 (69% win rate)
0xa2e3...fbb2 — Outcome 10657344, $11,000 (79% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?

ResolvedNew Zealand vs. Egypt$260,251 tracked8 signalsGamesSportsSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 21, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Price History — “No”

78¢

76¢

73¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction