Part of: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether no qualifying diplomatic meeting between official U.S. and Iranian government representatives will occur by June 30, 2026. It covers direct, authorized diplomacy related to U.S.-Iran relations and resolves based on whether such a meeting takes place before the deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,448 in smart money and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,187.

Categories: Politics, Foreign Policy, U.S. x Iran, Nuclear, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, nuclear deal, Israel x Iran, Vance, rewards 100, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% resolved win rate is buying Yes at 65¢ despite only moderate alert strength.

  • This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $285k lifetime.
  • They have traded 110 markets across 50 events, with $3.7M total deployed.
  • Entry at 65¢ follows a strong 1-week move, suggesting they expect the no-meeting outcome to keep firming.

$1,448 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

94% winning diplomacy bettor

Sharp wallet with a 94% historical win rate and strong cross-market record is effectively buying No on this US-Iran diplomacy market.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $78k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 36 events and the same 94% win record.
  • Selling Yes at 39¢ is equivalent to buying No at 61¢, backing a qualifying US-Iran meeting before the deadline.

$1,823 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% win-rate diplomat bettor

A highly proven 94% win-rate wallet with strong lifetime profit and serial cross-market success bought Yes despite the market moving against them.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $78K lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market record: 35 events, 36 markets, and 94% wins across those positions.
  • Bought Yes at 34¢ on a political/diplomatic market where informed views may matter.

$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a politically sensitive US-Iran diplomacy market.

  • This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up about $38K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 34 events and 40 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market thesis style.
  • Buying No at 60¢ means they are betting a qualifying US-Iran meeting happens by June 2026.

$1,316 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $200,830
  2. 0xe3b2...7d94 Yes, $33,936
  3. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $21,314 (46% win rate)
  4. 0x45a2...3c01 Yes, $12,219
  5. 0xe018...a22d Yes, $11,639
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $8,879 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x7fd3...e662 Yes, $8,227 (42% win rate)
  8. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $7,462
  9. 0x25db...28de Yes, $6,086 (50% win rate)
  10. 0x43cb...84df Yes, $6,029

Related Theses

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Hormuz lift deadline arbitrage

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Iran talks happen in June

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Iran agreement lands May 27

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Peace deal around mid-June

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Iran airspace closure unlikely

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Iran uranium deal unlikely

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Iran ceasefire collapses after May

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Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

14dWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?$6,187 tracked4 signalsPoliticsForeign PolicyU.S. x IranNuclearGeopoliticsIranKhameneiIran CeasefireTrumpnuclear dealIsrael x IranVancerewards 100, 4.5, 100
Yes
9¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
94¢
60¢
27¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

5d ago

$1,448 on Yes at 65¢

65¢9¢56¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

15d ago

$1,823 on No at 61¢

61¢91¢30¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

16d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 34¢

34¢9¢25¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

45d ago

$1,316 on No at 60¢

60¢91¢31¢

Related Theses