Part of: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa

Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $300,943.

Categories: UEFA Super Cup, Sports, Games, Soccer

Notable Trades

18-wallet bearish PSG cluster

An unusually large 18-wallet bearish cluster sold or bought against PSG at a major price move, with support from several highly profitable traders, though some activity appears to be profit-taking.

18 wallets put roughly $100,000 behind No exposure as PSG Yes surged about 25% in a day.
The cluster includes bettors with strong records, including 84% and 93% historical win rates.
Much of the flow is likely profit-taking from existing Yes positions, so the bearish signal is strong but not uniformly fresh conviction.

$100,219 on No

Sharp bettor leads $388K PSG cluster

Seven wallets concentrated $388.7K into PSG Yes, including a highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate and substantial existing exposure.

Seven wallets bought Yes for a combined $388,718, more than 2.5 times the stated liquidity.
One participating bettor has won 84% of 440 resolved trades and is up $5.35 million, with a 34-point edge over average odds.
Most wallets are adding to existing Yes positions, signaling increased conviction rather than routine isolated trading.

$63,189 on Yes

Sharp bettor scales into No

A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding another $117,000 to an existing No position amid an extreme volume spike.

This bettor has won 46 of 49 resolved trades, earning $1.45M while entering at an average 59%.
They added $117,370 to No at 43¢, increasing an existing $275,761 position.
The trade coincided with a 418x historical volume spike, despite No being priced near 44%.

$8,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

91% win-rate bettor adds to PSG

A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing PSG Yes position.

This bettor has won 91% of 148 resolved trades and is up $175,024 lifetime.
They are adding nearly $9,742 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment to over $26,800.
The purchase at 57¢ is slightly above the market midpoint, signaling continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.

$9,742 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Sharp bettor adds to PSG Yes

A highly profitable bettor with an 87% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing PSG Yes position at 57¢.

This bettor has won 87% of 561 resolved trades and is up $87,922 lifetime.
They are adding $1,500 to an existing Yes position at 57¢, signaling continued conviction.
The wallet has traded across 46 events and 64 markets, showing a substantial repeatable track record.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Sharp bettor scales into No

A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding another $117,000 to an existing No position amid an extreme volume spike.

This bettor has won 46 of 49 resolved trades, earning $1.45M while entering at an average 59%.
They added $117,370 to No at 43¢, increasing an existing $275,761 position.
The trade coincided with a 418x historical volume spike, despite No being priced near 44%.

$117,370 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

0xf031...c80c — Outcome 66637820, $767,040 (88% win rate)
0x86d2...731d — Outcome 66637820, $314,303 (95% win rate)
0xc41d...74fd — Outcome 66637820, $104,856 (97% win rate)
0x7d2f...ef1a — Outcome 66637820, $60,079 (57% win rate)
0x56b9...79a2 — Outcome 66637820, $59,949 (91% win rate)
0xae7f...6f49 — Outcome 66637820, $55,000 (100% win rate)
0x8c40...80df — Outcome 66637820, $54,060 (100% win rate)
0x4408...1b6a — Outcome 66637820, $51,411 (51% win rate)
0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 66637820, $36,395 (59% win rate)
0xd267...9dc6 — Outcome 66637820, $30,000 (69% win rate)

Related Theses

Portugal win by multiple goals

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Spain dominates Cabo Verde early

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Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?

ResolvedParis Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa$300,943 tracked6 signalsUEFA Super CupSportsGamesSoccer

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If Paris Saint-Germain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “Yes”

91¢

72¢

52¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction