Part of: What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
This Polymarket market asks whether the S&P 500 (SPX) will trade at a 1-minute candle low of $5,200 or below during regular trading hours in December 2026. It resolves on December 31, 2026, using Yahoo Finance 1-minute data; current smart money tracking shows $1,319 across 1 signal, with recent high-win-rate bettors buying No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,450.
Categories: SPX, Indicies, Finance, Monthly, S&P 500, Monthly Hit, S&P
Notable Trades
90% win-rate macro bettor
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No in a thin SPX market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $105K lifetime.
- Their $1.3K buy was nearly 79% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet book.
- Buying No at 88¢ means they are backing SPX not hitting 5,200 during December 2026.
$1,319 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
95% winner buying No
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the wallet has a very strong resolved-bet record and is taking a quiet-market No position.
- This bettor has won 95% of 378 resolved bets and is up about $4.1k lifetime.
- The $1.1k No buy was nearly 3x the market’s recent 24h volume, suggesting a confident position in a quiet market.
- Entry at 87¢ means they are backing SPX not hitting the listed December low level.
$1,131 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0x6f2a...de7d — Yes, $8,602
- 0x6c92...1322 — No, $5,539 (49% win rate)
- 0x347b...c9bc — Yes, $5,297
- 0xe60f...f4b4 — No, $5,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x08c9...a2ef — No, $4,269 (96% win rate)
- 0xfbfd...0029 — No, $3,541 (88% win rate)
- 0xbdcb...e811 — No, $3,253 (90% win rate)
- 0xc97b...47e5 — No, $2,101 (69% win rate)
- 0xa2a8...8466 — Yes, $2,037
- 0xdbe0...32cd — Yes, $1,992
Related Theses
Crude avoids record highs
Covers 2 related markets
