What does the SPX $5,200 low in December 2026 market mean?

This market is about whether the S&P 500 index will reach a low price of $5,200 or below at any point during regular trading hours in December 2026, based on 1-minute Yahoo Finance data.

When does this S&P 500 Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the final trading day of December 2026, with the listed resolution time of December 31, 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

What are smart money traders signaling on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,319 in smart money activity across 1 signal. Recent alerts include high-win-rate macro bettors and a 95% winner buying No, suggesting tracked smart money has leaned against SPX hitting $5,200 in December 2026.

How can I use this market for S&P 500 outlook analysis?

This market can help gauge trader expectations for downside risk in the S&P 500 during December 2026. Comparing its odds with related SPX level markets, volatility expectations, and macro data can provide context for broader market sentiment.

Part of: What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

Q: What data source determines whether SPX hit $5,200?

Resolution is based on Yahoo Finance 1-minute interval data for the S&P 500 during regular trading hours of the primary exchange. A 1-minute candle low at or below $5,200 would satisfy the Yes condition.

This Polymarket market asks whether the S&P 500 (SPX) will trade at a 1-minute candle low of $5,200 or below during regular trading hours in December 2026. It resolves on December 31, 2026, using Yahoo Finance 1-minute data; current smart money tracking shows $1,319 across 1 signal, with recent high-win-rate bettors buying No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,450.

Categories: SPX, Indicies, Finance, Monthly, S&P 500, Monthly Hit, S&P

Notable Trades

90% win-rate macro bettor

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No in a thin SPX market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $105K lifetime.
Their $1.3K buy was nearly 79% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet book.
Buying No at 88¢ means they are backing SPX not hitting 5,200 during December 2026.

$1,319 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

95% winner buying No

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the wallet has a very strong resolved-bet record and is taking a quiet-market No position.

This bettor has won 95% of 378 resolved bets and is up about $4.1k lifetime.
The $1.1k No buy was nearly 3x the market’s recent 24h volume, suggesting a confident position in a quiet market.
Entry at 87¢ means they are backing SPX not hitting the listed December low level.

$1,131 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%