Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?
This Polymarket asks whether SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) will print a 1-minute candle low at or below $640 at any point during April 2026. Only regular trading hours on the primary exchange count, so pre-market and after-hours moves do not qualify. The market resolves after April ends, with traders using live odds to gauge the probability of SPY touching that downside level.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,553.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Stocks, Equities, SPY, SPX, S&P 500
Notable Trades
88% win-rate SPY bettor
A proven high-win-rate serial cross-market trader put a market-moving $1.55k bet into a thin SPY downside market, buying No at 90¢ despite wide spreads and low liquidity.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 1,242 bets and has traded 196 markets in 101 events
- Their $1.55k order was 70% of this market's 24-hour volume, a strong size signal in a thin market
- Buying No at 90¢ means they see SPY staying above $640 this month with high confidence
$1,553 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x6e2c...b7f8 — No, $2,878 (88% win rate)
- 0x3a59...a364 — Yes, $2,120
- 0x3f18...1a22 — Yes, $1,000
- 0x1c86...c427 — No, $400
- 0x2478...2e62 — No, $389
- 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $268
- 0x5dde...2217 — Yes, $154
- 0xd975...5e9d — Yes, $136
- 0x9306...4eb1 — No, $110
- 0x1a37...6984 — No, $105 (72% win rate)
