Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?

This prediction market asks whether the Finding Satoshi documentary will identify Hal Finney as the primary creator of Bitcoin, or the person most directly presented as Satoshi Nakamoto. It is tied to the documentary expected to release on April 22 and is scheduled to resolve by May 1, 2026. Traders use this market to gauge the odds that the film’s conclusion points to Finney rather than another candidate.

This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,046.

Categories: Satoshi, Bitcoin, Crypto, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

95% winner fading hype

A bettor with an exceptional 95% win rate bought No into a fast-moving documentary market after a 31-point daily surge, making this a notable fade of the current consensus despite the weak raw alert score.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades with 188 bets tracked
  • They bought No at 38¢ after the market jumped 31 points in a day, fading the recent move
  • A $2.0k buy is meaningful in a market with just $9.3k of 24-hour volume

$2,046 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0a54...4a03 — No, $4,466 (95% win rate)
  2. 0x8c76...06ac — Yes, $3,849 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xf41a...ea2b — Yes, $1,711 (49% win rate)
  4. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,689
  5. 0x4526...7a45 — Yes, $1,161
  6. 0x2e63...399a — No, $1,000
  7. 0x73d2...f9b7 — Yes, $1,000 (76% win rate)
  8. 0xb39a...abed — Yes, $700
  9. 0x26b9...9ab5 — No, $400
  10. 0x927f...e7e7 — No, $300

Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?

13d$2,046 tracked1 signalSatoshiBitcoinCryptorewards 200, 4.5, 20
Yes
65¢
No
35¢

This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

Price History — “Yes”
82¢
44¢
7¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?

3h ago

$2,046 on No at 38¢

38¢→35¢↓3¢
Hal Finney Satoshi Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter