What does this Bitcoin prediction market measure?

This market measures whether Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle will close above $76,000 at exactly 12:00 PM ET on April 15. If the final close price is higher than $76,000, the market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No.

What price source decides the outcome?

The resolution source is Binance. Specifically, the market uses the BTC/USDT pair's 1-minute candle close price shown on Binance with the '1m' candle setting selected.

When does the market resolve?

The market resolves on April 15, 2026, after the relevant noon ET Binance candle data is available and finalized. The key observation point is the 12:00 PM ET 1-minute candle close on that date.

Does Bitcoin need to trade above $76,000 all day for Yes to win?

No. Only the final close price of the specified 1-minute candle at 12:00 PM ET matters. Bitcoin could trade above or below that level at other times without affecting resolution.

Is there any smart money activity in this market?

Yes. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,300 in smart money on this market, with 1 smart money signal and a recent alert tied to a '91% win-rate whale.'

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above $76,000 on April 15, based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET. It resolves to Yes if that final close is higher than $76,000, and No otherwise. The market settles on April 15, 2026, and currently has limited but notable smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,300.

Categories: Bitcoin, Weekly, Multi Strikes, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring

Notable Trades

91% win-rate whale

A highly proven Polymarket bettor with a 91% win rate and nearly $1.9M profit bought No at 85¢, making this a credible copy-trade despite only one signal firing.

This bettor wins 91% of their trades and is up about $1.9M lifetime
They have traded 180 markets across 139 events, so this is a seasoned repeat winner rather than a one-off whale
They bought No at 85¢ in a fairly liquid market, signaling confidence that Bitcoin stays below $76,000 by resolution

$5,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%