Part of: Bitcoin above ___ on April 28?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,949.
Categories: Bitcoin, Weekly, Multi Strikes, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring
Notable Trades
Profitable serial timer
A repeat last-minute bettor with positive P&L made a contrarian $2.5k No buy 9 minutes before resolution and immediately caught a sharp 14-point move.
- This wallet has a pattern of late bets near resolution across 4 markets and is up $5.6k overall.
- They bought No for 58¢ just 9 minutes before expiry, and No is now 13¢ after a fast 14-point move.
- The trade went against an 87% Yes market, showing clear conviction rather than routine flow.
$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable serial timer
A profitable serial timer bought Yes at 32¢ about 25 minutes before resolution on a high-volume BTC market, and the price quickly moved to 51%, suggesting strong short-term timing.
- This wallet has a pattern of late bets near resolution and is up $14.9k overall.
- They bought Yes at 32¢ just 24.5 minutes before settlement, and the market quickly jumped to 51¢.
- A 16x volume spike and an 11-point price move suggest fast money piled in on the same move.
$2,052 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial timer flips Yes
A highly active, profitable serial timer flipped from a closed No position into a fresh $5.7k Yes bet 30 minutes before resolution, a pattern that suggests a real-time edge worth watching despite the modest historical edge.
- This wallet has 1,367 resolved bets and is up $268.8k overall, with 43 near-resolution bets across 19 markets.
- The trader opened a fresh $5.7k Yes position about 30 minutes before expiry after previously closing a No position on this market.
- They paid 46¢ while the market now sits at 36¢, so the trade has moved against them even though last-minute timing is this wallet’s standout pattern.
$5,691 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial timer flips Yes
A highly active, profitable serial timer flipped into a fresh Yes position about an hour before resolution after closing an earlier No, signaling a deliberate late directional view.
- This wallet has made 42 near-resolution bets across 19 markets and is up $268.8k overall.
- They bought Yes at 50¢ about 60 minutes before resolution after closing an earlier No position, showing a fresh late read rather than routine holding.
- The market dropped 37 points in the last day, so buying into the rebound at 50¢ suggests they see the current price as mispriced.
$5,881 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Sharp bettor bought dip
A profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and strong edge bought Yes at 64¢, a sharp entry now marked up to 70%.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $195k overall
- They bought Yes at 64¢ and the market is already up to 70¢
- The trade came after a 17.5-point one-day drop, suggesting they bought into a sharp pullback
$4,070 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A very new wallet with early profits is making another sizable directional bet, but the signal is mostly about the wallet rather than this liquid Bitcoin market.
- This new wallet has already been flagged twice, holds 5 positions, and is up about $2,030 early on.
- The trade is effectively a BUY on Yes at 80¢ after selling No, showing a clear directional view.
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a bettor worth tracking than a market-specific edge.
$2,755 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xd264...1986 — Outcome 55414976, $10,000
- 0x2cce...6e85 — Outcome 55414976, $3,904 (69% win rate)
- 0xc7b1...5570 — Outcome 55414976, $3,000
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Outcome 55414976, $2,963
- 0x1f6b...267e — Outcome 55414976, $1,020
- 0xb4fc...a926 — Outcome 55414976, $940 (54% win rate)
- 0xe385...4170 — Outcome 55414976, $556
- 0x2080...6d80 — Outcome 55414976, $471
- 0x0a7d...1f5c — Outcome 55414976, $459 (100% win rate)
- 0x9872...84b8 — Outcome 55414976, $410
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