Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether the CDC will report at least 1,775 confirmed measles cases in the United States by April 30, 2026. The market resolves using the CDC’s 2026 measles case counter, making it a direct bet on the pace of the U.S. outbreak and official case reporting. It is scheduled to resolve by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,000.

Categories: Measles, Pandemics, Science, Weather

Notable Trades

99% win-rate serial bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 99% win rate just put an $8k buy into a very thin market, making up more than the full 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 534 of 537 resolved trades and has been active across 209 events.
  • The $8,000 buy was larger than the market's full 24-hour volume and hit a market with just $1,888 of liquidity.
  • They paid 87¢ for Yes, showing strong conviction even in a thin market with a very wide spread.

$8,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdf97...4653 Outcome 80290691, $4,433
  2. 0xc54d...8be1 Outcome 80290691, $3,142
  3. 0x0a6d...1d0a Outcome 79557788, $2,769
  4. 0x0285...59d6 Outcome 80290691, $2,297
  5. 0x0923...88c7 Outcome 79557788, $2,000
  6. 0x45b2...cbc1 Outcome 79557788, $2,000 (15% win rate)
  7. 0x3db2...f07e Outcome 79557788, $1,660
  8. 0x46ba...40d9 Outcome 80290691, $1,524
  9. 0x167b...2a29 Outcome 79557788, $1,300 (0% win rate)
  10. 0x97ea...3363 Outcome 79557788, $1,050 (72% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

5d$8,000 tracked1 signalMeaslesPandemicsScienceWeather

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Notable Trades

Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

4h ago

$8,000 on Yes at 87¢

Related Theses