What does this measles prediction market cover?

It covers whether the United States will report at least 2,200 confirmed measles cases in 2026 by June 30, 2026, according to the CDC’s Measles (Rubeola) Total Cases counter.

How will this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves to Yes if the CDC’s 2026 measles Total Cases count for the U.S. is 2,200 or more at the resolution time. If it is below 2,200, the market resolves to No.

What is the resolution source for the market?

The resolution source is the CDC Measles (Rubeola) data page, specifically the 2026 “Total Cases” counter for confirmed measles cases in the United States.

When is the deadline for the 2,200 measles case threshold?

The market uses the CDC case count as of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, according to the market rules.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,630 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, including activity flagged from a profitable thin-market bettor.

Part of: Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether confirmed U.S. measles cases in 2026 will reach at least 2,200 by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, based on the CDC Measles Total Cases counter. The market resolves Yes if the CDC total is 2,200 or higher at the resolution time, otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,630 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal for this market; live odds update as trading changes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,630.

Categories: Weather, Science, Measles, Pandemics

Notable Trades

Profitable thin-market bettor

Profitable high-sample wallet made a large No bet that dwarfs daily volume in a very quiet market.

This bettor has 910 resolved trades and is up about $53K lifetime.
The $1.6K No buy was over 23x the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
Entry at 81¢ implies a conservative but focused bet that the case count stays below 2,200.

$1,630 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%