What is this UMich Consumer Sentiment prediction market about?

This market covers whether the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026 will be in the 46.0 to 48.9 range. If the final reported value falls inside that bracket, this outcome resolves yes.

When does the June 2026 UMich Consumer Sentiment market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the final June 2026 University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release, with a listed resolution date of June 26, 2026.

What source determines the final outcome?

Resolution is based on the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026, which reports the official Index of Consumer Sentiment value used for this market.

Why do traders watch UMich Consumer Sentiment odds?

Consumer sentiment is a closely watched macroeconomic indicator because it reflects household confidence, inflation concerns, and spending expectations. Prediction market odds can show how traders are positioning ahead of the official release.

How much smart money is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,465 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market, including a recent alert described as a thin-market macro bettor.

Part of: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?

This prediction market asks whether the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June 2026 will fall between 46.0 and 48.9. It resolves after the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final June 2026 release, expected on June 26, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,465 in smart money activity from 1 signal, including a recent thin-market macro bettor alert.

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,465.

Categories: Consumer, UMich, rewards 200, 4.5, 20, Economy

Notable Trades

Thin-market macro bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet made a sizable contrarian Yes bet in a very thin macro market, worth surfacing despite no strong win-rate edge.

This high-volume bettor is up $72,760 lifetime despite a low hit rate.
The trade is large for this quiet market, equal to almost 10x the recent baseline volume flagged by the alert.
Selling No at 73¢ is the same as buying Yes around 27¢, betting the 46.0–48.9 sentiment bracket is underpriced.

$1,465 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%