Part of: World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination

Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,008.

Categories: FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Stage of Elimination

Notable Trades

91% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $7.8k of Yes at 50¢ despite otherwise modest signals.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $36k lifetime.
They put $7.8k on Yes at 50¢, a large share of recent market activity.
The market has moved +21.5 points this week, and this trade follows that momentum.

$7,758 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A repeat new wallet with early profit is making another large sports bet, sizing $3.25k into a relatively small-liquidity market.

This new wallet has already been flagged 4 times, with $7.7k total in notable bets.
It has a small but positive early record: 1 resolved win and about $1.3k profit.
This $3.25k buy is almost the size of the market’s displayed liquidity, showing real conviction.

$3,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0x1341...0853 — Outcome 59192806, $15,217 (85% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 59192806, $13,740
0x3879...d8c3 — Outcome 59192806, $1,000
0x77c7...ff39 — Outcome 59192806, $1,000
0x9fee...eda2 — Outcome 59192806, $1,000 (63% win rate)
0x1f54...8352 — Outcome 59192806, $1,000
0x56c2...6219 — Outcome 59192806, $970
0xd753...6053 — Outcome 59192806, $926 (100% win rate)
0x2dc5...da90 — Outcome 59192806, $600
0x41f0...3eeb — Outcome 59192806, $500 (64% win rate)

Related Theses

Established nations reach knockouts

Covers 7 related markets

World Cup shootouts stay under six

Covers 4 related markets

Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

ResolvedWorld Cup: USA Stage of Elimination$11,008 tracked2 signalsFIFA World CupSoccerSports2026 FIFA World CupStage of Elimination

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades