Part of: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

This Polymarket market predicts whether the active-month WTI crude oil futures close on May 14, 2026 will be higher or lower than the prior trading day’s close. It resolves “Up” if WTI closes higher and “Down” if it closes lower, with resolution expected around 21:00 UTC on May 14, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $11,627 in smart money activity, including signals from an 87% win-rate macro trader buying both Down and Up positions.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 14, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 14, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $62,111.

Categories: Finance, Commodities, Daily, Up or Down, Daily-Close, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Oil, Rewards Automation 1000, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

87% serial macro trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate is effectively buying Down with a five-figure oil bet.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $175K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 157 events with nearly $5M in flagged volume.
  • Selling Up at 51¢ is equivalent to buying Down at 49¢, a five-figure position near even odds.

$11,627 on Down | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Down

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% record and positive lifetime P&L effectively bought Down by selling Up on WTI.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $175K lifetime.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with 244 markets across 157 events and nearly $4.9M traded in this pattern.
  • Selling Up at 52¢ is equivalent to buying Down at 48¢, matching the current market split.

$13,484 on Down | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buys Up

Highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L made a $29.7k buy on Up in the WTI daily market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $174,794 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 157 events with nearly $4.9M in tracked volume.
  • The $29.7k buy is a large single position at 52¢, taking more than half the listed market liquidity.

$29,730 on Up | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% serial cross-market winner

Serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Up on WTI after selling Down at 50¢.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $174,794 lifetime.
  • They have traded 244 markets across 157 events, showing a long repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling Down at 50¢ is equivalent to buying Up at 50¢ in a near-even market.

$1,407 on Up | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buys Down

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought a large Down position that nearly matched the market's full 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $175K lifetime.
  • They have traded 243 markets across 156 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • The $5.9K Down buy was nearly the entire 24h volume, and the market has already moved from 49¢ to 52¢.

$5,862 on Down | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa540...0b43 Up, $1,255 (41% win rate)
  2. 0x5c32...d685 Down, $894
  3. 0xf60e...936d Up, $638
  4. 0xab51...2473 Down, $500 (11% win rate)
  5. 0x4060...3ec3 Up, $480 (87% win rate)
  6. 0x5c88...383a Down, $426
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 Down, $397 (47% win rate)
  8. 0x4867...a6f8 Down, $303 (58% win rate)
  9. 0xe54d...fdec Up, $300 (80% win rate)
  10. 0xc044...2d08 Up, $287

Related Theses

WTI stays below 105 in May

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 10 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Natural gas drops below $2.60

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

12hWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?$62,111 tracked5 signalsFinanceCommoditiesDailyUp or DownDaily-CloseHide From NewFinance UpdownPyth FinanceOilRewards Automation 1000, 4.5, 100
Up
52¢
Down
48¢

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 14, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 14, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Price History — “Up
59¢
52¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

47m ago

$11,627 on Down at 49¢

49¢48¢1¢

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

1h ago

$13,484 on Down at 48¢

48¢48¢

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

1h ago

$29,730 on Up at 52¢

52¢52¢

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

1h ago

$1,407 on Up at 50¢

50¢52¢2¢

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

1h ago

$5,862 on Down at 49¢

49¢48¢1¢

Related Theses