Part of: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?
This Polymarket-style prediction market asks whether the active-month WTI crude oil futures close on May 15, 2026 will be higher or lower than the prior trading day’s close. It resolves at 21:00 UTC based on the official close price comparison, with “Up” winning if WTI closes higher and “Down” winning if it closes lower. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,485 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including an 87% win-rate trader buying Down.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 15, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 15, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,779.
Categories: Finance, Commodities, Daily, Up or Down, Daily-Close, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Oil, Rewards Automation 1000, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
87% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Up at 48¢ on a liquid WTI daily market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $176K lifetime.
- They have traded across 158 events and 248 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 48¢ is close to even odds, giving room if their oil-market read is right.
$1,485 on Up | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% winner buying Down
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate sold Up, effectively buying Down at 46¢ on a daily WTI market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $176k lifetime.
- They have traded across 248 markets and nearly $5.0M of cross-market volume.
- Selling Up at 54¢ is equivalent to buying Down at 46¢, below the current 57¢ market price.
$2,865 on Down | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Up on WTI at 55¢.
- This bettor has won 87% of 743 resolved markets and is up $176k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 157 events and nearly $5M in tracked volume.
- Entry at 55¢ suggests they see WTI closing higher today despite only a slight market lean.
$1,430 on Up | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x4060...3ec3 — Up, $9,485 (87% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Down, $2,000 (47% win rate)
- 0xbada...d874 — Down, $1,905
- 0x629b...b236 — Down, $1,687
- 0x5f45...a77a — Down, $1,232 (61% win rate)
- 0xeaa5...888f — Down, $1,100 (44% win rate)
- 0xa6dc...12ec — Down, $1,000
- 0xa540...0b43 — Down, $880 (41% win rate)
- 0x8c93...3ff6 — Up, $770
- 0x5292...2b7d — Up, $685
Related Theses
WTI stays below 105 in May
Covers 6 related markets
Natural gas drops below $2.60
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