Diplomacy & Ceasefire

83% win rate · +$31,950

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 223 markets and has deployed about $947k across 25 events.
• They sold Yes at 10¢, which is effectively a bet on No at a very favorable price in a major geopolitics market.
• They have traded 5 markets tied to this same event for $28k total, showing a broader event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet.

67% win rate · +$148,996

• This bettor has won 67% of 256 resolved trades and is up about $149k overall
• They put $83k across 4 related Iran markets, showing a clear event-wide view rather than a one-off bet
• This buy came in at 44¢ and the market is now 52¢, so the move is already going their way

75% win rate · +$138,527

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades with $118k profit across 241 settled markets
• They have bet 7 related markets in the same event and 63 markets across 46 events, which suggests a researched macro view rather than a one-off punt
• They bought No at 70¢, but the market is now 58¢, so the move is worth tracking more than copying at current prices

85% win rate · +$21,804

• This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $21.8k overall
• They have placed $22.3k across 4 related markets on the same event, showing a coordinated thesis
• Bought Yes at 59¢ and the market is already at 64¢, so the position is in the money

88% win rate · +$667

• This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 101 markets and has traded nearly $795k
• They make repeated event-level bets across 77 events, which suggests a consistent macro thesis process
• They bought No at 87¢, pricing this as a high-probability outcome in a major news-driven market

85% win rate · +$75,044

• This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades across 155 markets and has put nearly $1.9M behind similar event-driven bets.
• They are trading 7 markets tied to this same US-Iran event, with $327k committed, which looks like a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt.
• They bought Yes at 78¢ in a liquid market, showing conviction even after the market had already moved to roughly 76% odds.

70% win rate · +$414,390

• This bettor has won 450 of 641 resolved trades and is up about $411k lifetime.
• They sold No at 71¢ in a market with only about $3k of 24-hour volume, a bet bigger than the entire day's flow.
• That exit price implies a Yes position around 29¢, below the current 34¢ market price.

75% win rate · +$138,527

• This bettor wins 75% of their trades across 241 resolved markets and is up $118k lifetime
• They have already put $339,830 across 7 related markets in this same event, showing a clear event-wide thesis
• Bought No at 73¢ in a market trading 68¢ now, backing the view that no official ceasefire happens by April 7

• This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling about $25k
• They sold No at 42¢, which is effectively a bet on Yes around 58¢ while Yes now trades at 64¢
• The market is liquid but this is still a sizable fresh position from a new wallet already active across related Iran markets

• This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts and put up $28.5k total
• They just bought the cheaper side at 34¢ by selling No, a clear bet that conflict cools sooner than the market expects
• The market is active but not extremely deep, so a $3.5k order still shows real conviction

100% win rate · -$126,489

• This 7-day-old wallet has already made 15 flagged bets totaling about $192k
• It has bet nearly $22k across 3 related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a coordinated event view
• This trade bought No at 57¢, a sizable fresh position in a high-volume news market

100% win rate · -$126,489

• This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts with $153.9k flagged total
• They opened a fresh $4.3k NO position at 41¢, implying they see the conflict lasting longer than the market expects
• The bet is meaningful but not routine for a brand-new wallet, and it adds to a pattern of aggressive early sizing

4 wallets, same direction (No/SELL), $32,148

• Four wallets put $32k on No/SELL together, and one of them wins 92% of resolved bets while another wins 88%.
• This group has a long cross-market track record: 33 events, 58 markets, $1.9M traded with an 88% win rate.
• They are re-entering after earlier closed positions on this market, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking.

86% win rate · +$160,985

• This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $160,985 overall
• They have traded 147 markets across 102 events, which suggests repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
• They bought Yes at 77¢ with $7,530, a sizable position in a live geopolitical market