Global Elections

3 wallets, same direction (Yes/BUY), $13,929

• Three wallets all bought Yes within minutes, totaling $13.9k in the same direction
• Each order was 7.7x to 10.9x the market's recent 24-hour volume, showing strong conviction in a thin book
• This is a political market with a 5¢ spread and only about $10.5k liquidity, so coordinated buying can matter

83% win rate · +$240,186

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $243k across $1.6M invested.
• They trade heavily across election markets — 73 markets in 40 events — and put $6.6k into No here.
• This order alone was bigger than the market's full 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a relatively quiet market.

69% win rate · +$882,642

• This bettor wins 69% of nearly 1,000 resolved trades and is up $882k lifetime
• They bought Democrats at 58¢ in a major 2028 election market with over $675k traded
• The signal came from related betting across the same event, suggesting a broader election thesis

83% win rate · +$240,186

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $246k overall
• They have bet $41k across 5 related Peru election markets, showing a broader event thesis
• This is a fresh No buy at 63¢ after closing an earlier No position, with a tight 1¢ spread in a liquid market

99% win rate · +$37,997

• This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades with 531 wins and just 7 losses
• They put nearly $20k into a thin market with only $4.2k of 24-hour volume
• Selling Yes at 33¢ is equivalent to buying No at 67¢, a clear bet against the current 72¢ favorite

• 14 linked wallets share the same funder and this network has been flagged 13 times before
• This wallet bought Yes at 56¢ with a $3.6k order, a meaningful size in a market with about $22k liquidity
• The trade is on a real election market with solid recent volume, making coordinated political positioning worth following

76% win rate · -$54,551

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $17.2k overall
• They just put $12.2k on No at 37¢, a bet equal to 51% of this market's 24-hour volume
• They are trading 2 related Hungary PM markets in the same event, which points to a broader election thesis

• A 23-hour-old wallet has already made repeated large bets, with $7.5k flagged across 2 trades
• This $3.7k buy was nearly 5x the market's entire 24-hour volume and hit a market with an 8¢ spread
• They bought Yes at 57¢, implying they think the market was underpricing Fidesz winning 90+ seats

5 wallets, same direction (Yes/BUY), $43,427

• Five wallets put $43k on Bennett Yes at 24¢ in under 30 minutes
• This hit during an 11x volume spike, showing real money moving into the market at once
• The market is only 24% yes, so this cluster is backing a long-shot outcome at a low entry price

74% win rate · +$3,063,127

• This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $3.0M lifetime across 969 bets
• They bought Yes around 24¢ in a market with only $756 of 24-hour volume, so this order was 6.4x the day's activity
• This wallet trades across many related events — 56 events and 87 markets — which points to a researched thesis rather than a random punt

76% win rate · -$54,551

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $17.2k lifetime
• They just put $14.4k on Yes at 36¢, implying they see Orbán as meaningfully undervalued
• This is part of a $51.4k two-market position in the same event, showing a focused election thesis

61% win rate · +$99,579

• 16 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting one larger bettor is deploying capital across accounts
• This wallet has traded 40 markets across 34 events and is up $54k with a 63% win rate
• They sold No at 22¢, which is effectively a bet on Mette Frederiksen, and the market has already moved to 14¢ No

86% win rate · +$160,985

• This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $161k lifetime
• They trade across 104 events and 149 markets, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
• They just put $6.1k into NO, equal to 77% of this market’s 24-hour volume, showing real conviction

83% win rate · +$240,186

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime
• They have traded 70 markets across 39 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
• They bought NO at 90¢ with $4.6k, a stake equal to 185% of this market’s 24-hour volume

100% win rate · +$544,384

• This bettor has won 22 of 22 resolved trades and is up $544k lifetime
• They sold JD Vance Yes at 19¢, which is the same as buying No around 81¢
• The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate sharp view rather than a random thin-market punt