Military Strikes

86% win rate · +$295,457

• This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $295k across 187 resolved markets
• They have a repeat edge, winning at average entry odds of 31%, which is unusually strong over a large sample
• They just bought Yes at 61¢ in a liquid geopolitical market, suggesting a real thesis rather than a random swing

71% win rate · +$270,347

• This bettor has won 71% of 602 resolved trades and is up $270k lifetime
• The trade effectively buys No at 23¢ after selling Yes at 77¢
• The market is liquid and active, so this looks like a deliberate geopolitical view rather than a random thin-market punt

94% win rate · +$31,202

• This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades across 1,291 bets
• They trade heavily across related events — 77 events and 589 markets for $167k tracked
• Bought No at 88¢ in a deep geopolitics market, showing a high-confidence base-case view

75% win rate · +$138,527

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 244 bets and is up $133k lifetime
• They have traded 64 markets across 46 events, which suggests a repeatable macro and news-driven process
• They bought No at 86¢ in a deep geopolitics market, a high-conviction favorite price on the U.S.-Iran invasion question

77% win rate · +$61,013

• This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $45.9k on nearly $987k invested
• They trade heavily across related news markets — 122 markets across 81 events suggests a real macro thesis process
• Bought No at 40¢ while the market still prices Yes at 62%, implying they see the invasion risk as materially overstated

• 17 linked wallets share the same funder, which points to one actor spreading a coordinated view across wallets
• This new wallet was only 14 hours old and still put $3.6k into No at 86¢
• The market moved from 86¢ to 92¢ after this buy, so the entry already looks well-timed

62% win rate · -$70,024

• This bettor has 1,000 resolved bets, wins 68% of the time, and is up $123.7k
• They are trading 3 related markets in the same event with $8.6k total, pointing to a broader thesis
• Bought No at 90¢ in a liquid market, signaling confidence the strike will not happen by March 31