U.S. X Iran

85% win rate · +$75,044

• This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $75k across $1.5M invested
• They trade across 150 events and 201 markets, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
• They bought No at 71¢, a moderate-conviction entry on a news-driven geopolitical market

70% win rate · +$153,462

• This bettor has won 70% of 1,021 resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime
• They have traded 287 markets across 117 events, suggesting broad event-driven skill rather than a one-off punt
• Their sale of Yes at 18¢ is effectively a buy on No around 82¢, in a liquid market with a tight 2¢ spread

• This 26-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts and put $77.6k to work
• They bought $14k of No at 85¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market, showing strong conviction on the favored side
• The wallet is also betting across 2 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a single trade

75% win rate · +$138,527

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 244 bets and is up $133k lifetime
• They have traded 64 markets across 46 events, which suggests a repeatable macro and news-driven process
• They bought No at 86¢ in a deep geopolitics market, a high-conviction favorite price on the U.S.-Iran invasion question

93% win rate · +$101,865

• This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 821 bets and has traded 242 markets in 137 events
• They sold Yes at 38¢, which is effectively a bet on No around 62¢ in a geopolitics market where informed views can matter
• The trade was about $3.8k in a market with only $11.2k liquidity, showing real conviction rather than routine noise

88% win rate · +$667

• This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 101 markets and has traded nearly $795k
• They make repeated event-level bets across 77 events, which suggests a consistent macro thesis process
• They bought No at 87¢, pricing this as a high-probability outcome in a major news-driven market

70% win rate · +$414,390

• This bettor has won 450 of 641 resolved trades and is up about $411k lifetime.
• They sold No at 71¢ in a market with only about $3k of 24-hour volume, a bet bigger than the entire day's flow.
• That exit price implies a Yes position around 29¢, below the current 34¢ market price.

• This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling about $25k
• They sold No at 42¢, which is effectively a bet on Yes around 58¢ while Yes now trades at 64¢
• The market is liquid but this is still a sizable fresh position from a new wallet already active across related Iran markets

• 19 linked wallets share the same funder and this wallet sold Yes at 80¢, a coordinated bet on No
• This wallet is only 19 days old and has already been flagged 3 times for large bets totaling $16.4k
• Selling the 79-80¢ favorite implies they think the market is overpricing continued strikes through March 31

86% win rate · +$160,985

• This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $160,985 overall
• They have traded 147 markets across 102 events, which suggests repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
• They bought Yes at 77¢ with $7,530, a sizable position in a live geopolitical market

85% win rate · +$75,044

• This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades across 155 markets and is up about $70.8k
• They have traded 198 markets across 150 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
• They bought No at 89¢ with size ($9.2k), showing conviction that the market should stay a heavy favorite