World Elections

3 wallets, same direction (Yes/BUY), $13,929

• Three wallets all bought Yes within minutes, totaling $13.9k in the same direction
• Each order was 7.7x to 10.9x the market's recent 24-hour volume, showing strong conviction in a thin book
• This is a political market with a 5¢ spread and only about $10.5k liquidity, so coordinated buying can matter

83% win rate · +$240,186

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $243k across $1.6M invested.
• They trade heavily across election markets — 73 markets in 40 events — and put $6.6k into No here.
• This order alone was bigger than the market's full 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a relatively quiet market.

83% win rate · +$240,186

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $246k overall
• They have bet $41k across 5 related Peru election markets, showing a broader event thesis
• This is a fresh No buy at 63¢ after closing an earlier No position, with a tight 1¢ spread in a liquid market

99% win rate · +$37,997

• This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades with 531 wins and just 7 losses
• They put nearly $20k into a thin market with only $4.2k of 24-hour volume
• Selling Yes at 33¢ is equivalent to buying No at 67¢, a clear bet against the current 72¢ favorite

76% win rate · -$54,551

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $17.2k overall
• They just put $12.2k on No at 37¢, a bet equal to 51% of this market's 24-hour volume
• They are trading 2 related Hungary PM markets in the same event, which points to a broader election thesis

76% win rate · -$54,551

• This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $17.2k lifetime
• They just put $14.4k on Yes at 36¢, implying they see Orbán as meaningfully undervalued
• This is part of a $51.4k two-market position in the same event, showing a focused election thesis

61% win rate · +$99,579

• 16 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting one larger bettor is deploying capital across accounts
• This wallet has traded 40 markets across 34 events and is up $54k with a 63% win rate
• They sold No at 22¢, which is effectively a bet on Mette Frederiksen, and the market has already moved to 14¢ No

83% win rate · +$240,186

• This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime
• They have traded 70 markets across 39 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
• They bought NO at 90¢ with $4.6k, a stake equal to 185% of this market’s 24-hour volume

100% win rate · +$544,384

• This bettor has won 22 of 22 resolved trades and is up $544k lifetime
• They sold JD Vance Yes at 19¢, which is the same as buying No around 81¢
• The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate sharp view rather than a random thin-market punt