Cross-Market Thesis

“Iran deal timing arbitrage”

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?, and 2 more are correlated outcomes, committing $32,792 to this thesis across 5 prediction markets on Polymarket.

W
Whale_0xf9c11100% win rate 🔥

Total

$32,792

Markets

5

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $2,519 @ 63¢
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
    $20,500 @ 82¢
  3. 3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
    $3,100 @ 62¢
  4. 4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
    $2,004 @ 74¢
  5. 5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
    $4,669 @ 83¢