Cross-Market Thesis

“Iran deal timing arbitrage”

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?, and 2 more are correlated outcomes, committing $39,158 to this thesis across 5 prediction markets on Polymarket.

W
Wallet_0x264cb59% win rate

Total

$39,158

Markets

5

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
    $10,800 @ 72¢
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
    $11,401 @ 88¢
  3. 3US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $12,257 @ 88¢
  4. 4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
    $1,860 @ 62¢
  5. 5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
    $2,840 @ 71¢
Iran deal timing arbitrage — Cross-Market Analysis | PolySpotter