Cross-Market Thesis

โ€œIran peace deal odds mispricedโ€

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? are correlated outcomes, committing $6,180 to this thesis across 3 prediction markets on Polymarket.

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $2,000 @ 61ยข
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
    $3,000 @ 75ยข
  3. 3US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
    $1,180 @ 41ยข
Iran peace deal odds mispriced โ€” Cross-Market Analysis | PolySpotter