Cross-Market Thesis

US-Iran deal in late May

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? are correlated outcomes, committing $30,400 to this thesis across 2 prediction markets on Polymarket.

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $8,800 @ 88¢
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
    $21,600 @ 90¢