Cross-Market Thesis

No US-Iran peace deal

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? are correlated outcomes, committing $10,000 to this thesis across 2 prediction markets on Polymarket.

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $5,000 @ 79¢
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
    $5,000 @ 45¢